Turnover on Regina council 'really rare' for a Canadian municipal election, expert says

There were a number of upsets in this week's Regina election. Sandra Masters defeated the incumbent mayor, Michael Fougere, by a comfortable margin, while three incumbents lost their seats in close ward races. 

A University of Calgary professor says that's not what's typically expected in Canada, given that 80 to 90 per cent of incumbents are re-elected in municipal politics. 

"What we see in Regina is something very different," associate professor Jack Lucas said. "[It's a] really remarkable number of incumbent defeats and a lot of turnover overall on city council.… It's really rare."

Lucas said that anecdotally it seems when there is a will for change from the voters, there are typically dramatic changes where multiple incumbents are defeated, like a contagion effect. 

Lucas said this race was interesting because some aspects of election night were puzzling. 

"First, you see substantial turnover on city council, including a number of incumbent defeats without any sort of high- profile citywide scandal or or mistake or something that can sometimes mobilize voters to say, 'We're done with this council,'" he said. 

"Another interesting dimension of this is the turnout story, because what we see here is a large number of incumbent defeats, but not a really dramatic change in turnout."

By Lucas's estimation, there were only about 5,000 more votes this year than in 2016, when turnout was only 20 per cent. 

"So it's really interesting to see a combination of what seems to be a lot of mobilization for change on the one hand and very low levels of turnout on the other hand," he said.

Lucas estimates that about half the people who voted in the provincial election voted in the municipal election. Provincial and federal incumbents have done very well in recent elections, making Regina's civic election results that much more interesting, he said.

Sandra Masters' appeal to both sides 

Mayor-elect Sandra Masters announced her platform on Oct. 8. In it, Masters had both left-of-centre and right-of-centre promises. Lucas said it's tricky to appeal to both sides of the political spectrum, but having those policies for all can be effective in municipal politics. 

"That's particularly true in cities where you have a lot of diversity of opinions and policy preferences within the city. That's something we see in Prairie cities like Regina," Lucas said. 

The lack of parties presents an opportunity at the municipal level, he said.

"There can be more room to define yourself in what you might think of as creative ways, relative to provincial or federal politics," Lucas said. "They're not sort of identified in advance by a particular party label and it seems that Sandra Masters was able to pull that off in Regina."

Steep learning curve

Lucas said city councils are tough jobs with a steep learning curve for new members. 

"It takes time to feel comfortable with the files that you're responsible for as a municipal council," Lucas said. "And you also hope to see some mentoring from the city councillors who are returning."

The contrast between newly elected politicians and their re-elected colleagues can also be a challenge.

That's all the more true in a circumstance like we're in right now, where there are hugely important decisions to be made about the pandemic and about municipal finance and about infrastructure investment in a context of extreme fiscal challenges," he said. 

"It's going to be right into the deep end for this new city council, I expect," he said.