Spring moisture changes the game for the Prairies. But how long will it last?
Above average moisture reported in May, but seasonal forecast calls for hot, dry summer
What a difference a year makes.
Last summer, forest fires were raging across Canada, Prairie farmers were in the midst of a catastrophic growing season and there was no relief in sight from heat and drought.
Going into this summer, ample moisture and cooler weather on the Prairies has brought a sense of optimism.
So what's behind the change?
The El Niño effect
There were fears as early as March that this spring would be a repeat of last — especially since winter on the Prairies was dominated by exceptionally warm and dry weather.
In addition to climate change, El Niño — a cyclical weather feature that warms ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, leading to warm and dry conditions over the Prairies in winter — likely played a major role.
But El Niño is now dissipating. Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) meteorologist Terri Lang said that could be a reason why our weather has turned a corner.
"During these transition zones, it is possible to kind of flip that switch, to go from sort of a warmer and drier [pattern] to a more average [pattern] and certainly increase in precipitation," said Lang.
Lang said low pressure systems that carry a lot of rain and cover large areas have been more frequent this spring.
"That's a big change," said Lang. "It's actually closer to what's supposed to be happening, what more of a typical spring is."
The change, she said, is likely due to the straightening of the jet stream, the delineator between warmer and colder air, that happens once El Niño weakens.
Much of Saskatchewan reported above average moisture in May — the first time that's happened over one month in about a year-and-a-half.
Calgary reported 61.7 millimetres of rain in May — above its average of 52.5 mm and the first time it's been above average in May since 2020.
Winnipeg reported 114.7 mm — well above its May average of 66.2 mm and far from the 20.5 mm it received in May 2023.
Drought comes to an end
According to Canadian Drought Monitor, "extreme" or "exceptional" levels of drought had ended in eastern Alberta and western Saskatchewan as of May 31 — the first time that's happened in over a year.
Large sections of southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta are now free of any drought classification for the first time in about three years.
The rain has been beneficial for Aaron Steinley, a farmer near Empress, Alta., about 140 kilometres northeast of Medicine Hat, Alta.
"It's been a long time since I've seen a spring this green or seen this kind of pre-seeding rainfall," said Steinley. "It is hard to believe how different it is from the previous seven years."
The weather station closest to Empress, in Leader, Sask., reported 63.4 mm in May, the most that month since 2016.
"We've been in a situation where by mid or end [of] July, we just watch all our efforts turn brown and die," said Steinley. "So this is quite different."
Near Yorkton, Sask., Bill Prybylski has seen springs on his farm with too little or too much rain.
This year, he said it's just the right amount.
"We're fortunate here we've been able to get the crop in the ground," said Prybylski. "There's more than enough moisture now to get the crops germinated and get them off to a good start."
The moisture may be good news for farmers, but John Pomeroy with the Global Institute for Water Security at the University of Saskatchewan said the rain alone isn't enough to fill critical waterways.
"The stream flow really depends on the overwinter snow pack and the rate at which that melts," said Pomeroy. "Those snow packs, when they melted back in April, were still below normal, so stream flow was short and sweet."
Pomeroy said adequate stream flows are important for drinking water supplies and irrigation come summer.
He's optimistic that snow in the Rocky Mountains will continue to melt over the next few weeks and eventually make its way into waterways across the Prairies.
Forest fires down after historic year
After a May that saw a massive forest fire near The Pas, Man., and the partial evacuation of Fort McMurray, Alta., the rain has quenched dry land in the northern Prairies.
From Jan. 1 to Jun. 11, Saskatchewan has reported 174 fires, compared to 384 during the same period in 2023.
Alberta saw more than 2.2 million hectares of land burned by fires in 2023. So far this year, only about 27,000 hectares have burned.
Richard Carr, a fire research analyst with the Canadian Forest Service, said the top of the forest floor can dry out quickly.
"Really [it] takes a few hours after a light rainfall for that to dry out," said Carr.
"But if you have a heavier rain, maybe it's going to take a couple of days, but then you can get surface fires going."
Carr said deeper layers can dry out within weeks, but he remains optimistic that above average moisture across the Prairies will keep things from getting as bad as last year.
Carr said forests could be threatened by the warmer and drier-than-average summer ECCC is predicting.
Much of the Prairies has a 60 to 100 per cent chance of seeing above normal temperatures and a 40 to 60 per cent chance of seeing below normal precipitation through the rest of June, July and August.
However, ECCC meteorologist Lang noted spring was also supposed to be warmer and drier than normal, but came out cooler and wetter.
"You have to always, not necessarily take the [long term] forecast with a grain of salt, but take them in the more general context and know that it's not an exact science, it's a bit more of an art form," said Lang.
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With files from CBC Radio's Blue Sky