Sask. NDP faces 'huge' challenge to win over voters by 2024, prof says

The new leader of the Saskatchewan NDP has vowed to "take back the province" with an election win in 2024, but the task is "huge," according to a Saskatchewan political scientist.

Carla Beck stood flanked by her caucus colleagues on the steps of the legislature Monday morning, launching what she is calling the "Build to Win" campaign.

Beck said she and her fellow MLAs will criss-cross Saskatchewan over the next three weeks.

"We will be meeting with folks in their places of work, in their communities, sharing their stories and a vision of Saskatchewan that works for all of us."

Beck and her NDP caucus will travel "everywhere from south of Carnduff to brand cows, to Prince Albert, to celebrate the birthplace of medicare."

"I'm prepared to run the tires off my car," Beck said.

Beck said the initial goal is not to sell NDP memberships but to find "connections."

"I know that we've got a lot of work to do. But we want you there with us," Beck said in a message to voters on Monday.

Party membership falls from 2018 to 2022

Beck's tour may be the first step on a long road to rebuilding the party.

On Sunday, Beck won the leadership comfortably, taking 68.5 per cent of the vote.

However, her 3,244 winning votes were less than the 4,860 Trent Wotherspoon received when he finished second in 2018. Wotherspoon received more votes in 2018 than ballots cast in 2022.

Total membership was almost cut in half from the 2018 leadership race (13,414) to the 2022 contest (7,294).

In the 2018 leadership race, voter turnout was 81 per cent, with 10,837 of 13,414 registered Saskatchewan NDP members casting votes. In 2022, voter turnout was 65 per cent, with 4,741 votes of 7,294 registered NDP members casting votes.

Tom McIntosh, professor of politics and international studies at the University of Regina, said the reported membership numbers indicate the party is now down to the "absolute base of the core."

"If they've lost almost 6,000 members — and the fact that two-thirds voted — that's not an indication of a healthy party at this point. And that's a big challenge for Beck."

McIntosh said that in the past, voters in provincial elections who fell in "the middle" chose the NDP under leader Roy Romanow and later Lorne Calvert, but those voters shifted to the Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall in the mid-to-late 2000s.

"[Wall] took that centre away from the NDP and they've held on to it. Are those people willing to come back to the NDP? That's not clear at this point, however, without them, they don't form government," McIntosh said.

He called trying to convince those middle folks a "huge thing to undertake."

The Opposition NDP has 11 of 61 seats in the Saskatchewan legislature after the resignation of former leader Ryan Meili.

As Beck heads out with her NDP caucus on the "Build to Win" tour, McIntosh said the party may need to set its sights on a more modest target than forming government in 2024.

"I know it's the standard thing to say 'I'm running to be premier,' but I don't think anybody at this point thinks the NDP is poised to retake power. And so maybe you have to say we need an Opposition."

He said the party has to "be strategic" about where it can gain seats. He said the party is likely still a long way from making big inroads in rural areas.

"Focus attention on keeping the city, the urban seats they have and growing some of those urban seats that are close."

Resource economy, increasing conservatism among challenges

Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, says the NDP has a few hurdles to overcome in attracting more support.

"The environment in Saskatchewan is not favourable right now to a centre-left party. The broader challenges that the NDP face in Saskatchewan may be reflected in what they're seeing to their membership." 

Westlake said a few things are working against the NDP in the province.

"Centre-left parties tend to do better in urban areas and not as well in rural areas," he said. "Saskatchewan compared to other provinces is more rural."

Second, Westlake said some voters see centre-left parties "taking more environmentalist positions," which can be politically difficult given Saskatchewan's resource-based economy.

Third, he said, "the Prairies have been tilting in a more conservative direction."

Westlake said one or two of the above can be dealt with, but "when you have got all three that creates real challenges for the party."

"They can't make the province less rural. They can't make the economy less based on resources. And it's very hard to make a province less conservative," Westlake said.

He said the NDP does have the advantage of being in a province with only "two competitive parties."

"The one thing they have going for them is they are the only game in town for anybody who centre-left or who is unhappy with the Saskatchewan Party."

LISTEN | NDP Leader Carla Beck discusses her leadership win and what's next