Sask. Party pushes for 5-peat as NDP looks for breakthrough

The Saskatchewan Party has been a juggernaut for more than a decade, winning the past four elections and getting more than 60 per cent of the vote in the last three.

Now, Scott Moe is looking to lead his party to a rare fifth straight election victory on Oct. 28.

The story heading into the 2024 provincial election is murkier than in recent campaigns.

Moe faces a new challenge from the NDP under Leader Carla Beck and an unknown threat from parties on its right, namely the Saskatchewan United Party.

The issues

Affordability and taxes

The consumer carbon tax has been a central point in Moe's critiques of the NDP, but Beck has said she and her party do not support it, despite Moe's persistence.

Moe has also tried to associate Beck and the provincial wing of the NDP with Jagmeet Singh, and the now-defunct supply and confidence agreement between the federal NDP and federal Liberals.

During the last legislative sitting, Beck criticized Moe almost every day about affordability, and the Saskatchewan Party government's increase and expansion of the PST.

Moe has countered by pointing to Saskatchewan's affordability relative to other provinces, its GDP per capita, and plans to grow the province's resource industry and by extension the economy.

The Saskatchewan Party leader has painted a picture of a steady future of growth under his party, and pushed back against promises of tax cuts from the NDP, Sask. United and others.

Beck promised to suspend the provincial gas tax and remove the PST on children's clothes and some grocery items.

Moe has yet to announce any tax cuts and has questioned how the NDP will pay for its promises. Beck has said a fully-costed platform will be released early in the campaign.

The Saskatchewan United party has pledged to cut the PST to three per cent from six per cent and eliminate the gas tax.

Health care and education

During the pre-campaign period, the Saskatchewan Party and NDP held dueling news conferences on health care. Beck, flanked by nurses and other health-care providers, called for more support and pledged an additional $1.1 billion for the health system. The government touted its Health and Human Resources (HHR) Action Plan.

The HHR is a major plank of the Saskatchewan Party's overall health-care vision.

Beck and Health Minister Everett Hindley disagreed over how many health-care professionals have been brought in.

Beck said the government doesn't want to talk about net numbers, and that the province is having more health-care workers leave than other provinces.

Hindley said he believed that with the province's hiring, the numbers are "a net positive."

Moe and the government had a protracted contract dispute with teachers for more than six months and still don't have a resolution.

The STF launched a "vote for public education" campaign calling on candidates to commit to restoring and maintaining per-student funding, addressing class size and complexity, and working on concerns about violence in schools.

Beck has promised $2 billion in new spending on K-12 education over four years if elected.

University of Saskatchewan assistant professor of political studies Daniel Westlake said the three main issues in the campaign are affordability, health care and education.

"Saskatchewan, in some ways, is looking like a lot of the rest of the country. Cost of living is not just important here, it's important across the country," he said.

"We're seeing access to health care become a major issue in pretty much every province in Canada. Those are dominating not just provincial headlines, but national headlines.

"We're coming out of a teacher strike, so that's going to politicize education. I suspect the NDP will try to politicize it."

Sask. Party's new look

The Saskatchewan Party will be without several high-profile cabinet ministers, many of whom decided to walk away from politics after many years in office.

They include Donna Harpauer, Don McMorris, Don Morgan, Dustin Duncan, Joe Hargrave and Gordon Wyant, who is running to be mayor of Saskatoon.

Randy Weekes, first elected in 1999, lost a nomination contest. Long-time Yorkton MLA Greg Ottenbreit decided to step away from politics.

In all, 23 people who won in 2020 under the Saskatchewan Party banner will not be on the ballot this fall. At the end of the spring sitting, 16 were still MLAs within the government.

The NDP has two MLAs not seeking re-election, Doyle Vermette and Jennifer Bowes.

Westlake said retirements are not necessarily a sign of trouble for the Sask. Party.

"I wouldn't see retirements as a reason to be worried about a particular party. If retirements are accompanied by other factors such as declines in the polls, then I would start to get concerned."

He said that after 17 years in power, some may have decided to leave because they accomplished their goals.

The NDP's 30 per cent ceiling

In the last three provincial elections, the NDP has struggled to break past 32 per cent of the vote, allowing the Saskatchewan Party to cruise to victory. The NDP won nine, 10 and 13 seats over the last three votes.

Recent polls have suggested the NDP is gaining on the Sask. Party thanks to improved support in Regina and Saskatoon.

Meanwhile, the new Sask. United Party could add a wrinkle.

Heading into the campaign, the Saskatchewan Party had 42 seats, the NDP had 14 and the Saskatchewan United Party had 1.

It remains to be seen whether the NDP can bust through its ceiling of around 30 per cent off the vote. Westlake said the map, demographics and economics in Saskatchewan are favourable to the incumbent party.

"It's important to remember that Saskatchewan fundamentally is friendly territory for centre-right parties. At the end of the day, this is a relatively wealthy province," he said. "If we look at GDP per capita, it's a province that is relatively rural and that tends to be better for centre-right parties, and it's a resource-based economy, which also tends to be better for centre-right parties."

Westlake said the NDP could gain some ground in city seats.

The five closest contests in 2020 were all in Regina and Saskatoon. The NDP won one of those (Regina University) and has picked up another in a subsequent byelection (Regina Coronation Park).

Tom McIntosh, professor of politics and international studies at the University of Regina, said he will be watching to see if the Sask. Party can hold on to the suburban/rural seats on the outer edges of the two major cities. The Sask. Party won those seats comfortably in 2020 and though there is a new electoral map, many suburban constituencies remain unchanged.

McIntosh said that if the NDP wants a true breakthrough, it will have to pick up seats in Regina and Saskatoon, and reclaim seats in Moose Jaw and Prince Albert which it held in the past.

"I'm still not seeing a road to a Carla Beck government. If they can show real strength in the two seats in Prince Albert, the seats in Moose Jaw, maybe some of the other smaller centres, [it] would send some ripples of shock through the Sask. Party, because it has quite confidently owned the smaller urban centres for the last number of years."