Meili election latest shift in changing Sask. political landscape

Every decade or so, political regions turn the page on the political personalities of the past and undertake change or renewal. Sometimes that change is imposed by voters and sometimes it occurs gradually as important personalities quietly walk away, and new leadership takes its place. We're witnessing both of of those stories in Saskatchewan.

Sask. Party strengths and challenges

The decade-long Saskatchewan Party government made its mark by slowly and cautiously moving the conservative needle toward privatization and deregulation, all the while benefiting from a record economic boom. While the Sask. Party began as a coalition of disgruntled Liberal and Conservative MLAs, the more moderate liberal voices in the party have been significantly reduced over the past decade. Led by populist leader and skilful communicator Brad Wall, the party actively moved toward its conservative and rural base, aligned itself unapologetically with the oil sector, and committed to more private sector involvement in the delivery of core public services.

New leadership, new problems

New Sask. Party leader Scott Moe, a relatively unknown rural MLA, is now tasked with carrying that legacy forward. Moe's policy promises during his leadership were remarkably thin, but those that did carry resonance were to reverse PST increases for agriculture and life insurance, oppose the federal carbon tax, and restore some (but certainly not all) funding for kindergarten to Grade 12 education. The premier has stated he will pay for these promises through more austerity, which we now know includes a reduction in the public service.

Such policies will inevitably clash with numerous groups, including public sector workers (and their unions), environmental activists, supporters of federal climate initiatives, and educators. Examine those groups closely and you see they have something in common — they are overwhelmingly situated in the province's cities.   

Provinces population changing

The 2016 census demonstrates that Saskatchewan is increasingly urban and young. The metropolitan areas of Regina and Saskatoon make up roughly 50 per cent of the population, and when smaller urban centres are added to the equation, Saskatchewan's urban population soars to 60 per cent.

Behind those numbers is a younger and more diverse population eager to explore new political and economic ideas. It is worth noting there was an impressive mobilization opposing the cuts in the last budget, which originated and has been sustained in urban centres.

Moreover, Indigenous people represent the fastest growing population in the province. Their key issues — an end to colonial attitudes and policies, greater political and economic autonomy through revenue sharing, culturally sensitive services, an end to racism and racist institutions in all sectors of society — can no longer be ignored.  

Appealing to these demands and the voters that accompany them remains an ongoing challenge for a party and leader that has firmly doubled-down on protecting its rural Saskatchewan base in the election of Moe.       

The problem of '29'

The election of Meili will certainly appeal to the many young and progressive voters that supported him during his leadership campaign. Along with a detailed policy platform, Meili's campaign deliberately targeted progressives eager to see the party take principled policy positions. That appeal will likely have an immediate impact in cities, where recent byelection wins suggest that the NDP is once again competitive in urban areas. But significant problems remain.

Having now been out of power for a decade, there is no clear path back to government for the NDP. The Saskatchewan Party's strength in rural Saskatchewan gives it an incredible advantage in any general election. In the current legislature, there are 30 urban seats and 31 rural seats. Two of those seats represent the far North, where the NDP is competitive. The remaining 29 rural seats represent the base of the Sask. Party and are well represented by Moe. Moreover, if recent byelections are any indicator, rural Saskatchewan continues to overwhelmingly support the governing party.

Put into context, the Sask. Party begins every election with an advantage of 29 seats, needing just three extra seats to form a majority government. For the NDP to form government, it would need to win all 14 Saskatoon and 12 Regina seats and four seats in other urban centres, while also holding their two northern ridings. That would produce a sparse one seat majority.

But the problem for the NDP is that the voting data is clear — suburban voters in Saskatoon and Regina have been receptive to the Saskatchewan Party's message of low taxes, privatization, and smaller government over the past 10 years.

Expanding electoral appeal

In electing Meili, the NDP is clearly positioning itself to younger, more urban voters. That is necessary step as the province continues to grow. But one of Meili's greatest hurdles will be to appeal to non-conservative voters in rural and suburban Saskatchewan.

As farms have vastly increased in size and economic complexity, the remaining farmers tend to identify much more closely with a capitalist class than a labour one. This has eroded the prospects of rebuilding the NDP's traditional social-democratic farmer-worker alliance.

Demographic trends only compound the problem. The exodus of young people from rural places continues and while rural Saskatchewan is certainly not homogenous, it is more so than the urban centres.

A Meili-led NDP must be willing to listen to the voices, in both urban and rural areas, of those currently excluded from the benefits of a decade-long commodity boom. If it can build progressive new coalitions over issues such as sustainability and renewable energy creating new economic opportunities, there will inevitably be political openings. Such a change will require determination to do politics differently and to resist the pressure to rush to the political centre. It's a strategy that past NDP leaders have tried and which have failed; they will not work in the future.

As we head toward 2020, both of Saskatchewan's main parties face political and economic challenges. Time will tell how both new leaders respond to Saskatchewan's new challenges in the 21st century.

This column is part of CBC's Opinion section. For more information about this section, please read this editor's blog and our FAQ.