Lumsden-Morse byelection a test in Saskatchewan Party stronghold

The byelection in Lumsden-Morse will serve as an interesting litmus test for the political temperature of rural Saskatchewan, according to one expert.

Tom McIntosh, a professor of politics and international studies at the University of Regina, told CBC News that he expects the constituency to be safely held by the governing Saskatchewan Party.

But with a series of upstart parties running candidates, the dynamic will be an interesting one to watch. 

"If they got the [Saskatchewan Party] still winning the seat but with only a plurality of the vote instead of a majority of the vote, that might send a bit of a scare into the [Saskatchewan Party] in the sense that their rural stronghold may not be as strong as they think," McIntosh said. 

Lumsden-Morse shares a partial border with city of Regina and extends into southwest Saskatchewan. The constituency has been a Saskatchewan Party stronghold since it was created ahead of the 2016 provincial election. 

Veteran Saskatchewan Party MLA and former minister of agriculture Lyle Stewart earned more than 70 per cent of the vote in the 2016 and 2020 election. 

Stewart announced his resignation in March for health reasons. Now there's an opportunity for a new person to hold the seat. 

Of the trio of byelections set for Aug. 10, only Lumsden-Morse has candidates from the three parties currently with a seat in the legislature; The Saskatchewan Party, New Democratic Party and the Saskatchewan United Party. 

Blaine McLeod is the nominee for the Saskatchewan Party. According to a party biography, McLeod has been a dairy farmer in Caronport, Sask., for 42 years. 

He currently serves as the Saskatchewan Director with Dairy Farmers of Canada and operates Caroncrest Farms Ltd. with his sons.

Kaitlyn Stadnyk is the candidate for the New Democratic Party and grew up on her family's farm near Lumsden and is currently completing her Bachelor of Human Justice at the University of Regina.

She's a volunteer that's worked with non-profit organizations including the John Howard Society of Saskatchewan . 

Jon Hromek is the Saskatchewan United Party's candidate and has worked in the province's energy sector since graduating from the University of Regina in 2003 with a Bachelor of Applied Science in Petroleum Engineering. 

He's founded and managed numerous oil exploration and production companies and currently serves as the CEO of Adonai Resources II Corporation.

McIntosh said the Saskatchewan United Party's role is something he'll follow closely, as they likely pose the biggest threat. 

"If the United Party could finish second, that might shake the Sask Party a little," he said.

The Buffalo Party of Saskatchewan and the Saskatchewan Green Party are also running candidates in the constituency. 

Les Guillemin is the candidate of the  Buffalo Party of Saskatchewan. According to a party profile, he's lived in Regina for 32 years and is employed by a crane company. 

Isaiah Hunter is representing the Saskatchewan Green Party and ran in the constituency in the 2020 provincial election. 

Hunter has attended Lumsden Elementary School and Lumsden High School and is currently attending SaskPolytech for a computer/automated systems technician certification.

He's also the son of Saskatchewan Green Party leader Naomi Hunter.