The need to be heard, engaged may be what this P.E.I. election is about

The winds of political change have taken down governments in British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario, and Prince Edward Islanders will soon learn if their province is next.

"It's pretty straightforward," said Kathy Large, a political commentator on CBC's Island Morning.

"Governments are losing and new parties are taking over."

The governing Liberals may try to take comfort in their strong record of economic stewardship, but UPEI political science Prof. Peter McKenna believes there is little relief there.

McKenna said the economy had been strong in all three of the provinces where governments went down.

"I don't think that's enough anymore," said McKenna.

He points to low polling numbers for the Liberals, and in particular for leader Wade MacLauchlan, as evidence that change will strike P.E.I. as well. Added to that is the difficulty of a party winning a fourth term, as the Liberals are trying to do now. That's happened only once on P.E.I. since the 1960s.

But while it is reasonable to consider history, and to make comparisons between provinces, it is never possible to predict the future with certainty.

"The Liberals are starting off this campaign in a very weakened position," said Large.

"That's not to say that the campaign doesn't matter."

The millennial effect

Mathieu Arsenault, chair of Fusion Charlottetown, an advocacy group for young business people, believes it's a mistake to oversimplify what the desire for political change is about, and the impact it may have on Prince Edward Island.

Arsenault noted that millennials are just coming into the age where they are most likely to vote, and he believes that demographic is adding a new uncertainty to Canadian politics.

"People of the millennial generation, or people my age that I am generally hanging out with, there is less of a party affiliation," he said.

"So what I think is really interesting is that people are genuinely considering what people are saying and they're evaluating either the people or the types of actions that they will be able to make."

'Don't feel like their voices are being heard'

So, yes, the campaign matters. Campaigns can change things. But is there anything in this particular campaign that's driving voters?

If the traditional ground of campaigning on a strong economy has become uncertain, what is left?

Arsenault feels he has a sense of what his generation is looking for.

"People want to feel engaged and they want to feel involved," he said.

Millennials have become accustomed to having the whole world in the palm of their hand, of being able to connect to anyone, anywhere, any time. And if they can do that, said Arsenault, they should be able to connect with their government.

"It's not so much that they are upset that things don't go their way," he said.

"But I think people are upset if they feel that they're not being listened to or that their opinion doesn't matter."

McKenna echoes this sentiment.

"People are feeling disconnected, are feeling disconnected from government, are feeling disconnected from the decision-making process, and don't feel like their voices are being heard," he said.

Weakness all around

If that was the whole story, however, the P.E.I. election would not, one week before election day, be considered a three-horse race. The Liberals would be out of it, and the Tories and the Greens would be battling over the spoils.

Large said the Tories — with five leaders since the last election, and Dennis King only on the job since February — have a job to do to convince the electorate they are ready to govern.

It's very unusual for a new party to rise up.— Kathy Large

"There has been a leadership vacuum leading up to this election. The current leader has great potential," she said.

"He presents himself well. He's articulate, but he's only had two months to make an impact."

The Greens have led in the polls, but leader Peter Bevan-Baker is one of only two Green MLAs ever elected on P.E.I.

"It's very unusual for a new party to rise up and gain support as the Greens have done," said Large.

"You can't even find examples in [P.E.I.'s] modern day."

Unpredictable, but maybe not close

All three parties have their weaknesses, and that is why at this late stage of the campaign the election remains so unpredictable.

But Large cautions unpredictable doesn't necessarily mean close. P.E.I. has a history of lopsided election results, and it's not too late for that to happen this time.

"That is a phenomenon that happens during campaigns," she said.

"Parties are building, building, building and then all of a sudden they hit that 40 per cent [popular vote] and boom, they elect a whole bunch of people."

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