Rain expected to be biggest issue with tropical storm Erin

Erin, now a tropical storm, is expected to start bringing rain to P.E.I. late in the day Thursday.

"The outer bands of Erin should start affecting the Maritimes by tomorrow morning in the form of clouds and then the rain is going to follow," said CBC meteorologist Tina Simpkin.

"I think the rain is going to hold off for the better part of the day tomorrow until late in the afternoon and into the evening."

Simpkin said Islanders can expect five to 10 millimetres Thursday during the day but much more overnight, as much as 50 mm before Friday afternoon.

Environment Canada is predicting as much as 100 mm of rain for the Island, but Simpkin says it comes down to the track Erin ends up taking. 

"This track has changed so much in the past three model runs. It's the guidance we use to forecast these things. And I can't say that I've ever seen such variance in the models in that short amount of time," Simpkin told Island Morning Wednesday. 

"So this one is a very tricky one to pinpoint where the bulk of the rain is going to fall. 

Erin is expected to be downgraded to a post-tropical storm by the time it hits the Maritimes, but it will also combine with a system moving in from the west, which will add moisture and bring heavier rains.

Environment Canada said winds are not expected to be strong enough to reach warning criteria, but with the leaves still on the trees branches could come down and cause power outages.

Storm surges are not expected to be a serious issue.

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