Prince Edward Island's population growth slows in 4th quarter

P.E.I.'s population grew by only a few hundred people in the last three months of 2023, the lowest increase in a single quarter since a population boom began when the province emeged from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistics Canada data released Thursday estimated P.E.I.'s population on Jan. 1 to be 176,162, up by 309 people from three months earlier.

Slow growth is typical in the fourth quarter of any year, because people don't tend to move around much in the last three months of the calendar year. Virtually all of P.E.I.'s population increase in recent years resulted from migration, both interprovincial and international.

The quarterly growth rate for the last three months of 2023 was 0.2 per cent, above that quarter's average of 0.1 per cent since 2010.

The slowdown follows the two biggest quarters of population growth in P.E.I. history, but may simply reflect the fact that people were choosing to move to the province during more hospitable months.

With the strength of the two middle quarters last year, P.E.I.'s growth remained at unprecedented levels, up 3.7 per cent, a trend of growth more than three per cent since early 2022.

Immigration still leading cause

Population growth on the Island was high before the COVID-19 pandemic. Annual rates ran above two per cent in 2018 and 2019.

Despite the imposition of pandemic restrictions, which curtailed immigration to all parts of Canada, P.E.I. kept growing in 2020, but at a slower rate.

Population growth is divided into three components: International migration, interprovincial migration, and natural increase — when the number of births in a place is greater than the number of deaths. In the last three months of 2023, only the immigration category contributed to growth.

Natural increase has increasingly been a negative influence on the province's population. The last time more Islanders were born than died was the third quarter of 2021. In the fourth quarter of last year, 65 more Islanders died than were born.

Compared to the last two fourth quarters, far fewer people moved to P.E.I. from other provinces at the end of 2023. Over the previous two years, in-migration in the fourth quarter averaged almost 1,100 people; that number had fallen to only 628 last year. 

Out-migration, averaging about 750 for the quarter in the last two years, rose to 854 — resulting in a net loss of 226 people.

It was the second quarter in a row of population loss to other provinces, something unusual compared to recent years.

Interprovincial migration, which tends to fluctuate over the course of decades, has been a strong contributor to Prince Edward Island's growth since 2017. Since then, the province has seen a net gain of 6,665 residents from interprovincial migration.

Those numbers coming from elsewhere in Canada are, however, far below the growth P.E.I. saw from new residents arriving from other countries.

International migration includes both a permanent component, represented by immigration and emigration, and those here temporarily.

Net non-permanent residents have increasingly been a part of population growth on P.E.I. Between 2010 to 2016, they represented a net growth of just 2,254 people. Since then, their numbers have more than tripled, to 7,454 people.

From quarter to quarter, movements in temporary permanent residents are volatile, and in the fourth quarter of 2023 the Island lost 200 residents in this category. That followed a gain of almost 1,400 non-permanent residents in the third quarter.

Immigration alone kept the population on the Island growing, with a net gain of 758 people for the quarter.

In fact, immigration has been the biggest contributor to population growth on Prince Edward Island since 2017, with a net gain of nearly 16,000 residents.