P.E.I. population crossed 180K mark, Statistics Canada projects

P.E.I.'s population has crossed the 180,000 mark, according to live projections by Statistics Canada.

The federal agency's real-time population calculator doesn't show the official population numbers, which are released on a quarterly basis. But it estimates the Island crossed the record milestone overnight.

The update comes as the province continues to experience rapid growth seen since the start of 2022.

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Last year, P.E.I.'s population increased by a record 4.3 per cent, or 7,000 people. On Jan. 1, 2023, the population sat at 173,954.

Within seven months, the province saw a net increase of more than 6,000 people.

P.E.I. predicted in May the population would reach 200,000 by 2030, four years earlier than what it had forecast in 2022.

But if the current growth rate continues, the 200,000 mark could potentially be crossed by late 2026 or early 2027, according to Sébastien Lavoie, an analyst with Statistics Canada's Centre for Demography.

"It's fair to expect some changes when we kind of update our model, but it should still be in the vicinity of 180,000 or above," Lavoie said.

Lavoie said P.E.I. and Atlantic Canada have seen significant change since about 2016 when it comes to population growth.

He said generally, there's a lot more people moving from Ontario to the Atlantic region, rather than other way around.

The live calculator is updated as the official population numbers arrive.

Young families

In June, P.E.I. said it was putting "final touches" on a new population strategy to address rapidly increasing numbers. At the time, the Opposition urged the province to take a more aggressive approach.

Over the last three to four years, Summerside has seen an annual population increase rate that's greater than its cumulative increase in the 20 years prior, Mayor Dan Kutcher said.

In terms of exact numbers, Kutcher said that growth has translated to an annual increase of about 350 to 375 people in the city in the last 3-4 years.

Kutcher said those new residents are mainly coming from other provinces and countries. Many of the international immigrants arriving in Summerside are young, working families, he said.

The mayor said that's great news overall because Summerside has an aging population like other Atlantic Canadian cities, and many Baby Boomers are retiring from the workforce.

Whether they're nurses of physicians, we need those jobs.​— Dan Kutcher

"Particularly the jobs that our seniors are going to need, whether they're personal care workers or grocery clerks, our construction folks, whether they're nurses of physicians, we need those jobs,"  he said.

Of all the international immigrants arriving in the city, Kutcher said about nine out of 10 are under the age of 44. A third are under 14. 

Lavoie said it's normal for international immigrants to be in younger age ranges, but even interprovincial migrants to P.E.I. seem to be in their 20s. 

At least part of that can be attributed to students, he said.

"I wouldn't go as far as to say a full reversal of the trend, but certainly a contributing factor to the faster aging of population was the loss of that younger population," Lavoie said. "Now, this kind of comes in and balances out these trends."

More deaths than births

Kutcher said Summerside still has a negative population growth overall, as there are more people dying than being born in the city.

The 2021 census counted the city's population at about 16,001. Kutcher estimates by now, it's only increased to about 16,500.

The mayor said while there are many benefits of a growing population, there are also challenges. There's added pressure on infrastructure and public resources, he said, from roads to hospitals to water treatment plants. 

"When new people come, there's obviously more pressure on that and we don't always get the immediate tax base return on year 1 or year 2," Kutcher said.

The mayor said the city must invest in housing and transit to retain young people in the area.

"We need to grow, but we need to grow smartly," he said.

"We had some really successful projects come out with the rapid housing initiative supporting vulnerable women and children. We just made an application under the Housing Accelerator Fund. So we're doing everything we can."

Stratford has led the Island's population growth in two of the last three censuses. Mayor Steve Ogden said the town has created a high demand not only for housing, but also recreational facilities, places of worship and basic infrastructure.

"We've had a lot of new people come to our community and we've been playing catchup with regard to all the services and programs that they need for quite a period of time," he said.

"If they don't have the programs, services and infrastructure, they'll move on."