Why it's hard to say if the pandemic is better or worse on P.E.I. than other provinces

Some numbers suggest P.E.I. is currently having a harder time than other provinces with the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is difficult to say for sure what those numbers mean.

On Island Morning on Wednesday, the day the province lifted restrictions, P.E.I. Premier Dennis King argued that the situation on the Island was no worse than anywhere else in the country, despite high case numbers.

"Most Islanders know that the virus is still prevalent in the community. We all know friends and family members who have this," King said.

"Overall, there isn't any more COVID on P.E.I. than there is anywhere else."

We've been conditioned to look at case counts, he said, but that's not necessarily the most reliable measure anymore.

Part of the trouble is that pandemic statistics are gathered and reported provincially. Each province does this a little differently, reporting different statistics and for different time periods.

For example, the latest numbers for British Columbia and Alberta are for the week ending March 28, but for Manitoba they're for the week ending March 26. Ontario and east are for the week ending April 4. Saskatchewan stopped reporting any COVID-19 statistics on Feb. 6.

That said, P.E.I., by a large margin, is recording more cases per 100,000 population than any other province, more than could likely be explained by a late surge. The 221 cases per 100,000 in P.E.I. is more than three times the next highest rate, which is New Brunswick at 70. All of the other provinces are under 20 per 100,000.

But the differences in each province's ability to detect COVID-19 also need to be taken into account.

CBC P.E.I. stopped tracking daily case numbers for the Island in February following a change in provincial policy about who should get tested. Even before then, as waiting times grew in December, it is likely cases were being missed, as some sick Islanders just decided to stay home in bed rather than wait in their vehicles for hours to get tested. And so their illness went uncounted.

It is almost certain that the 221 cases per 100,000 daily on P.E.I. is an undercount.

Different strategies for testing

But the undercount is probably much higher in other provinces.

Testing regimes, as with statistics reporting, are different in every province. Rather than try to analyze those various practices, CBC News looked at one simple metric: How many people are getting tested in every province? If more people are getting tested, more cases are going to be found.

The testing rate is also much higher on P.E.I. than in other provinces that are reporting testing numbers, at 510 per 100,000 — more than twice as high as the next highest province, New Brunswick, at 205.

Still, out of those 510, 43.3 per cent tested positive, more than anywhere else in the country. New Brunswick comes in at 34 per cent and Alberta at 26.5 per cent. Other provinces are all under 15 per cent.

In addition to Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador are not reporting testing numbers.

This measure is still far from perfect. It's possible that one of the reasons more people on P.E.I. are getting tested is because more people are sick.

People in hospital

Last month, Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Heather Morrison said rather than case numbers, her primary concern was the impact on the health-care system.

Morrison reiterated that point at a pandemic briefing on Tuesday, noting that conditions have changed in the last year.

"Future impacts on the health-care system are expected to be manageable due to the high rate of vaccination and the availability of effective treatments," she said.

P.E.I. has one of the highest fully vaccinated rates in the country, though it has lagged on booster doses, particularly for young people.

The easiest way to measure the impact on the health-care system is to look at the number of people in hospital. P.E.I. reported that 14 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 on Tuesday.

CBC News asked the Chief Public Health Office if there was a particular number of hospitalized Islanders that would be a cause for concern but did not receive an answer.

Again, different provinces report this differently. Outside of Atlantic Canada, hospitalizations include patients admitted for other reasons but who are found to have COVID-19 after they arrive. Inside Atlantic Canada, counting only those admitted for COVID-19 is favoured.

Fortunately, P.E.I. reports both numbers, so a comparison can be made with all provinces, with the exception of Saskatchewan.

With the total number of patients having COVID-19 at 18 per 100,000, P.E.I. has the second highest rate among the provinces counting cases this way. Alberta is higher, at 21.5. Quebec is the only other province over 10, at 17.1.

Within Atlantic Canada, P.E.I.'s rate of 8.4 per 100,000 for people hospitalized because of COVID-19 is in the same range as New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador, which are both over nine. Nova Scotia's rate is running lower, at 5.1.

While this is a clearer measure than cases — since people in hospital and the population are hard numbers — it should be noted it relies on a snapshot in time.

Because of P.E.I.'s small population, a small change in numbers can make a big difference. For example, if three COVID-19 patients have left the hospital since Tuesday and no more were admitted, the province's rate drops 20 per cent, putting it closer to Nova Scotia than New Brunswick.