P.E.I. has regained the jobs lost in the pandemic, but they aren't the same

By some measures the Prince Edward Island economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the recovery has not looked the same for everyone.

Over the course of the coming weeks, CBC News will investigate some of these trends more deeply, seeking expert opinion and talking to some of the Islanders affected by them.

For now, here are the numbers themselves.

The number of jobs in the economy in October 2021 — 80,000 —was virtually the same as it was in October 2019 (80,200).

Have you changed jobs, given up on working, or had a more difficult time finding work during the pandemic? If you have a story to tell about work and the pandemic we want to hear it. Write to kevin.yarr@cbc.ca

The number of those that were full time was about as close as it could be: 68,400 in 2019 and 68,300 in 2020.

The population has grown in those two years so the unemployment rate is higher. It was 8.3 per cent in 2019 and 9.1 per cent this October, which is still low by historical standards for the Island.

And this is where we start getting into some significant differences.

The unemployment rate on the Island would be higher this year, but the percentage of Islanders choosing to be part of the workforce, known as the participation rate, remains unusually low at 65 per cent. Only once in the five years before the pandemic started was it lower.

While the number of jobs in the economy can jump around from month to month, the participation rate tends to be more consistent. During the pandemic, it has been more erratic.

In the five years up to February 2020, it averaged 66.3 per cent. If the participation rate had been that high in October, the unemployment rate would have been 11 per cent.

More older women are opting out

Diving a little deeper, we find that the distribution of Islanders leaving the workforce is far from even.

Men are only a little less active in the workforce but women, especially older women, are opting out in larger numbers..

The participation rate for men fell just 0.4 percentage points, to 70.6 per cent, while for women it fell 3.2 percentage points to 59.4 per cent.

The increase in unemployment has fallen almost entirely on youth, those aged 15 to 24.

It was never easy for young men to find work. Their unemployment rate was 11.5 per cent in Oct. 2019. It rose to 19.8 per cent last month.

Young women used to have an easier time of it. Pre-pandemic, their unemployment rate tended to run below the overall average. In October 2019, it was 5.9 per cent, but this October it was 14.7 per cent.

The situation has greatly improved, however, for women aged 25 to 54. Their position was relatively good pre-pandemic, with an unemployment rate of 5.5 per cent. Last month it was a tiny 2.8 per cent.

Big drops in hospitality, transportation

The types of jobs people are doing has also changed.

Frustratingly — for employers — the number of Islanders working in some jobs where there is high demand has actually fallen.

The number of construction workers is down more than 10 per cent. The situation in transportation and warehousing is even worse, down 17 per cent, and the number of hospitality workers is down more than 20 per cent.

These diminished numbers have been offset by growth in professional, scientific and technical services, a broad category encompassing work ranging from accounting to scientific research, which is up 30 per cent. Manufacturing is up 15 per cent, and public administration is up 11 per cent.

Given that change in the job mix, it is perhaps not surprising that there has been a change in educational qualifications of the typical P.E.I. worker.

It is not, however, a straightforward move toward a more educated workforce.

The number of workers who have not completed high school is down more than 20 per cent, while the number with a university degree has risen 13 per cent. The number of workers with other post-secondary qualifications, however, has also fallen. It's down 10 per cent.