P.E.I. loses more than 9K jobs in April

P.E.I. had the lowest unemployment rate in the country in April, but behind that seemingly strong showing are hiding problems in the labour market.

Statistics Canada released the Labour Force Survey for April on Friday morning. It showed an unemployment rate on P.E.I. of 10.9 per cent, compared to 13 per cent nationally.

The unemployment rate is relatively low because of a huge decline in the number of Islanders in the workforce, the largest percentage decline in the country. The workforce is made up of people who are working, and those who are looking for work.

In March Statistics Canada counted 85,900 Islanders in the workforce. In April there were just 77,700, down 9.5 per cent. Nationally, the number of people in the workforce fell 5.7 per cent.

In terms of the unemployment rate, the smaller workforce offset a loss of 9,200 jobs on the Island. That's 11.7 per cent of the jobs that were in the provincial economy in March. The province's performance in holding onto jobs in the pandemic is a little worse than the national average, where 11 per cent of jobs were lost.

The total number of jobs on the Island is down 14 per cent since the pre-pandemic times of February.

UPEI economist Jim Sentance is not too concerned about the number of Islanders who have left the workforce. He feels they are likely to come back.

"A lot of that is because they're in an occupation where things have been shut down and there are just no opportunities. There's just no point in looking," he said.

"That doesn't mean you're not ready and able and willing to work, once work is possible."

Have we hit bottom?

In early April, the P.E.I. government released projections of the impact of the pandemic on the provincial labour economy.

It projected a peak of 20,000 job losses in May. If that projection stands, the Island has only felt about half of the full economic impact of the pandemic.

But the province had predicted most of the job losses would have hit by April, with 17,500 losses by last month, and then a further 3,000 in May.

"So far we seem to be doing better than they projected," said Sentance.

"I don't really see us losing a whole lot more jobs over the next month."

The lobster season will go ahead in May, albeit with a late start, and retail stores will start to reopen May 22. How that is captured in May's Labour Force Survey will depend on exactly when in the month it is done.

Some missing jobs will be ones that didn't start

Understanding that impact is complicated by the seasonally-adjusted numbers typically used to report job numbers in Canada. Seasonally adjustment allows for numbers to be compared from month to month in a meaningful way.

For example, on P.E.I., there are typically more jobs in May than there are in April. The lobster fishing season starts, meaning there are jobs on the water and in processing plants, and some tourism businesses are beginning to open.

There are many different ways in which I think workers who have not had a good deal have really brought us through this pandemic.— Ann Wheatley, Cooper Institute

By adjusting the numbers seasonally, Statistics Canada allows policy makers and the public to compare May to April without having to think about how employment virtually always goes up in real numbers in May.

Some of those 20,000 fewer jobs projected for May could be jobs that in a typical year would have been starting up, but didn't because of the delay in the lobster season and the lack of tourists.

Disproportionate impact on vulnerable workers

In its report, Statistics Canada noted the impact from COVID-19 on employment has been disproportionately felt by vulnerable workers across the country — those in low-paying, temporary and non-union jobs.

There's also been a disproportionate impact on vulnerable households. The number of single parents in Canada without employment has risen 54 per cent since February.

While low-wage workers have been among the most likely to lose their jobs through the pandemic, Ann Wheatley of the Cooper Institute, a non-profit research and advocacy group, called it one of the "great ironies of the pandemic" that other workers typically seen as disposable have emerged as essential.

"The people who are working in our grocery stores, the people who are our cleaners … there are many different ways in which I think workers who have not had a good deal have really brought us through this pandemic."

Wheatley said she hopes one outcome of the pandemic is that there is a "new respect" for low-wage workers receiving few benefits, along with "more pressure put on governments to improve employment standards, to make sure that minimum wages are livable wages," and to improve minimum standards for sick days and other benefits.

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