June heat wave in P.E.I. made 'much more likely' by human influence on climate, new research suggests

The Canadian government has drawn a link between climate change and a record-setting heat wave last month on P.E.I.

The new rapid extreme weather event attribution system used by Environment and Climate Change Canada compares simulations to reveal how human-caused climate change affects the likelihood of an extreme weather event.

The system's first results were gleaned from the heat wave that took place between June 17 and 20 in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. It found the heat wave was made two to 10 times more likely because of climate change.

From June 18 to 20, the heat wave reached a peak temperature of 26.1 C averaged over the region, which is 10.6 C above normal.

New daily highs on June 20

New daily highs for June 20 were recorded at four weather reporting stations across P.E.I. Charlottetown's high of 32 C surpassed the previous record of 28.5 C set in 2001.

In a briefing to reporters from across the country on Tuesday, Greg Flato, director of climate research at Environment and Climate Change Canada, said the extreme weather event in all regions was made "much more likely by the human influence on the climate."

And as the planet continues to warm, he added, the country can expect more heat waves.

"By providing this information immediately after an event, our hope is that it drives home the message that climate change is already affecting us right now and will continue to affect us in the future," Flato said.

The rapid extreme weather event attribution system works by comparing two simulated climates with different atmospheric compositions: the climate of the late 1800s before the major impacts of the Industrial Revolution, and the climate of today.

The June heat wave was the first significant weather event where the results have been shared. The government plans to use it for future weather events and create a database. 

Tips for summer campers, pet owners and construction crews trying to beat the heat on P.E.I.

5 months ago

Duration 3:21

Amid P.E.I.'s most recent heat wave, everyone is doing their best to stay cool. Two summer camps for kids both have measures in place to keep participants from overheating. CBC P.E.I. also spoke with the Department of Transportation about how crews are doing while working outside, and with a dog trainer about how animals cope with the hot weather.

Flato said the data could help Canadians, municipalities and hospitals prepare for future heat waves. 

"By demonstrating and calculating the increased likelihood that we are already experiencing for events like this, it, I hope, provides more compelling information for Canadians to understand what the role of climate change means, how it affects our lives, our environment, and how it will continue to affect us."

During the system's pilot stage, Environment and Climate Change Canada scientists will only analyze heat waves. Work is underway to extend the system to analyze extreme cold temperature events and extreme precipitation.

Flato said the most effective way for Canadians to mitigate climate change is to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

"Canada … is warming at about twice the global rate of warming, and it's clear that that is caused primarily by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide."