Cost of living a key issue as federal Liberals and Conservatives plan stops in P.E.I.

Former Malpeque MP Wayne Easter thinks Prince Edward Islanders will have a clear message to share when members of Justin Trudeau's federal Liberal cabinet visit the province for their three-day summer retreat starting Monday.

"I would hope they put on the top of everybody's agenda at this cabinet meeting, in capital letters: 'IT'S THE ECONOMY,'" Easter said.

"You talk to people every day — they see the costs going up, furnace oil and gas going up, food going up."

On Tuesday, Statistics Canada revealed the national inflation rate ticked up in July to 3.3 per cent, although P.E.I.'s rate of 2.1 per cent was the lowest in the country.

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For almost two years, Islanders struggled under the highest inflation in the country. Then in July, they faced a spike in fuel prices as the province switched from its own carbon pricing program to the federal one.

Even with the tax increase, gas prices on P.E.I. remained well below the levels they had reached the year before, which helps explain why the province's inflation rate in the latest set of figures is lower than what the rest of Canada is seeing.

However, the biggest impact from that switch in fuel taxes — a 17-cent-per-litre increase in the cost of home heating oil, previously exempt from the carbon tax — won't be felt until the winter, when Islanders start to heat their homes.

Easter, who held three different portfolios in the cabinet of Jean Chrétien, said the Trudeau government can ignore Islanders' pleas at their peril.

"If people on the street, ordinary folks and ordinary businesses — in an area where the Liberals have been and still are strong — if they're sending you a message, you'd better listen to it," Easter said.

Conservatives eye P.E.I. gains? 

All four federal ridings on P.E.I. have been held by the Liberals since 2015, and Gail Shea, who spent two terms in the cabinet of Stephen Harper, is the only federal Conservative to be elected in the province since the 1980s.

But as support for them rises in national polling, Conservatives are starting to feel they could make gains in Prince Edward Island.

UPEI political scientist Don Desserud said he thinks Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will likely face a receptive crowd for the latest in a series of "Axe the Tax" rallies, which the party says will be held Wednesday evening in New Glasgow, P.E.I.

It will mark Poilievre's first visit to the province since taking the helm of the Conservative party in September 2022.

"I think he'll get a strong reception. I've never seen a rally that says 'We want more taxes,'" Desserud said, calling the carbon tax a "trigger-point issue" for Islanders struggling with rising prices.

But he said he doesn't expect the rally will help those in attendance place the carbon tax within the greater context of efforts to protect the environment.

Exactly how does this tax work in solving some of the bigger problems with climate change?... I'm not confident… that they've done a really good job of making that connection. So we have an Opposition party that can exploit that problem.— Don Desserud

"Exactly how does this tax work in solving some of the bigger problems with climate change?" said Desserud.

"Prince Edward Island understands climate change. We see it on a daily basis now."

The challenge for the Liberals, he said, is to connect the two.

"I'm not confident… that they've done a really good job of making that connection. So we have an Opposition party that can exploit that problem."

MLA mulling federal run has been vocal

Desserud pointed to repeated questions from MLA Jamie Fox during the most recent sitting of the P.E.I. legislature.

From his position on Dennis King's Progressive Conservative backbench, Fox often took aim at the Trudeau government and its carbon tax policies while directing questions at provincial cabinet ministers.

"I'm not here to clap for Trudeau and celebrate him putting up the price of petroleum that will disproportionately impact Islanders on everything we consume on this Island," he told the legislature on May 31.

"In fact, if the prime minister was standing right here in front of me today, I would tell him [to] get his hands out of Islanders' pockets because I don't support the carbon tax when you live in a rural province that has to drive vehicles."

It doesn't seem likely a backbench Tory MLA would get face time with the prime minister during the Aug. 21-23 Liberal retreat. But Fox said he plans to attend Poilievre's "Axe the Tax" rally on Wednesday.

He also confirmed to CBC News that he's considering seeking the Conservative nomination in the riding of Malpeque whenever the next federal election is called.

There are two years left in the current mandate of the Trudeau government.

But with the Liberals holding a minority supported by Jagmeet Singh's NDP through a confidence and supply agreement, Desserud and many other observers believe the next federal election will likely come before Oct. 20, 2025, the fixed-election date currently on the books.