Climate change simulator tool draws gasps, even tears from P.E.I. residents
'It's a very realistic visualization and people take it to heart,' says climate lab director
Adam Fenech has spent 35 years spreading the message that climate change is coming. For the last 10 of those, he's had an assistant named CLIVE helping out.
CLIVE, which stands for CoastaL Impacts Visualization Environment, allows Islanders to virtually fly over P.E.I. using a controller to raise and lower sea levels, showing them the future impact of coastal erosion.
The program was created in 2013 as a way to share research and projections of coastal erosion. The interactive format using the latest coastal imagery gathered by the province was the suggestion of some of Fenech's students.
The director of the UPEI Climate Lab said the reaction from students during the first demonstrations of CLIVE was immediate.
"I was hit in the back of the head by gasps from the audience. And I thought, 'Oh wow, we're really onto something here.' This visualization is really effective. People's concern went from high to very high," Fenech said.
"Since then, we've always considered it to be a very effective tool for conducting vulnerability assessments, and getting people talking about coastal issues."
This month, Fenech is touring the Island with an updated version of CLIVE, visiting eight communities to give residents a glimpse into the future.
"I have to be very careful because it's a very realistic visualization and people take it to heart. I've had people react very emotionally to seeing their houses swamped with water, as you can imagine. In previous tours with the earlier CLIVE, I've had people actually crying as a result," he said.
"I'm hoping that they can judge their vulnerability and then take action, which is either move their structure further away from the shore or build up some form of protection."
Protecting a shoreline, Fenech admits, is difficult and can be expensive. He said one of the goals of CLIVE is to convince Islanders not to build in areas under threat of coastal erosion.
"My main message is, of course, don't build so darn close to the shoreline," Fenech said.
"Like everyone else, I'm seduced by the ocean, so I'd love to live right on the coast, but it's not a realistic option anymore on Prince Edward Island under climate change, in many places."
Fenech said the visualization tool has been updated, using the latest imagery gathered by the provincial government.
"There's been a great advance in the resolution of the imagery, as well as in the way that we can program things," he said. "What we have now is a tool that has the whole Island in one scene that we're able to fly over."
Fiona 'took huge bites' out of P.E.I.'s coast
A study done a decade ago showed the annual average rate of erosion across P.E.I. was roughly 28 centimetres, or about a foot, Fenech said.
While that might seem like a slow rate to some, it doesn't take very long for 30 feet of coastline in front of a summer cottage, for instance, to disappear.
Events like 2022's post-tropical storm Fiona add to the speed of that erosion, Fenech said.
"Fiona acted like a big great white shark taking huge bites out of our province. Certain places lost 15 metres in that one storm," Fenech said.
"CLIVE is the virtual reality, Fiona is the reality."
'My house will be underwater'
Nora Scales attended the first presentation of the new CLIVE at Beaconsfield Carriage House in Charlottetown.
She first talked to Fenech about her summer house in Annandale in Kings County almost 10 years ago.
At that time, Scales wasn't overly disturbed by the CLIVE simulation, saying the erosion around her property didn't appear to be very drastic.
This time around, though, it was a different story.
"The flooding is more imminent. It's going to happen more quickly. It's more drastic," Scales said. "In 75 years, my house will be underwater."
She described the coastal flooding simulation as "scary," but also inevitable.
"It's there. We have to deal with it. Climate change is a fact of life and those of us with properties on the water have to be sensitive to it," Scales said.
"Would I buy another waterfront property? Probably not."
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