Canada's post-secondary industry predicts a storm ahead, as budget cuts shrink courses, staff
Institutions, students, faculty call for sustained boost to provincial funding
Amid cuts to staff, programs and student services, Canada's post-secondary system is moving into a stormy period. Students, faculty, post-secondary institutions and experts predict challenging times ahead as colleges and universities report budget shortfalls, exacerbated by federal restrictions on new international students, ongoing domestic tuition caps or freezes, and stagnant provincial funding.
Here's what you need to know.
How did we get here?
As provincial operating funding for post-secondary institutions has decreased over time, schools have looked elsewhere to make up the difference.
"We've been able to pretend we've got a world-class university system for the last 15 years. It's been the international students that have kept it all afloat," said consultant Alex Usher, president of Higher Education Strategy Associates.
With fewer international students, "you have to say to Canadian students and their parents ... 'Maybe it's time for you to pay,' or to say to government, 'It's time for you to start increasing your contributions to universities and colleges.'"
What are universities and colleges saying?
Universities, from the University of Manitoba to Newfoundland and Labrador's Memorial to Dalhousie in Nova Scotia, have noted significant drops in international student enrolment, with some projecting budget shortfalls tied to losing that tuition revenue.
Colleges are also facing rough waters. Ontario's Seneca Polytechnic said in October it will temporarily close one of its campuses, citing the drop in international students, while fewer international applications and enrolment contributed to Mohawk College's projection of a $50-million deficit for 2025-26.
Ontario's situation is particularly dire: Home to 40 per cent of Canada's university system, the province "on a per-student basis, has spent less money on post-secondary education than any other province for 43 of the last 45 years," Usher said.
Against that backdrop and now with fewer international students, Ontario institutions are also grappling with domestic student tuition having been frozen since 2018-19 and higher labour costs, after the repeal of a government bill that restricted public-sector wages.
Ten Ontario universities already reported financial losses of more than $300 million in 2023-24, projecting $600 million in 2024-25, according to Steve Orsini, president of the Council of Ontario Universities.
Why won't accepting more domestic students bridge the gap?
For studies in humanities, business or law, for instance, domestic tuition can come close to covering those programs' costs. But others — like coveted STEM university programs, or health studies touted by governments to fill labour shortages — cost much more to deliver than domestic tuition covers. Institutions can't simply run those at a massive loss, Usher said.
Parents "want their kids to get into computer science at [McMaster] or Waterloo or wherever, and it's just incredibly difficult to get in," he said.
"It will get significantly harder in the next little while."
What are students seeing?
Required to make major cuts to their budgets, institutions will likely cut course offerings, Usher said. He predicts a "bonfire of programs" specifically at colleges, which already tend to be more volatile than universities.
The shrunken course catalogue is already happening at Vancouver Island University, says fourth-year sociology student Caitlin Kellendonk.
"I have to do a fifth year of my undergrad ... because there just haven't been enough upper-level courses being offered," said the Nanaimo, B.C., student.
Along with changes including VIU ending a beloved music program, Kellendonk says she's seen some required courses staggered to every other year.
Students from different programs are choosing from a smaller pool of courses, and they've also noticed fewer summer opportunities, she said.
There's also been a reduction of offerings outside classes, with Kellendonk noting smaller and fewer student activities and services, and more difficulty snagging counselling or library appointments.
Active both in her university's student union as well as the B.C. Federation of Students, Kellendonk says that attending post-secondary has become accessible to a wider swath of students over time.
But she worries that progress could slide backwards if domestic tuition goes up. It's why she wants to see a sustained increase in provincial funding rather than one-time or short-term boosts, as in B.C. or Ontario.
How are faculty and staff affected?
Labour costs, Usher noted, can represent 70 to 75 per cent of an institution's expenses. So budget cuts have also meant slashing jobs and staff — with younger or contract employees typically being the first to go — and freezing salaries and hiring.
"We can expect layoffs. They're going to be immediate. They're going to be ongoing and they're going to affect every category of employees," Clinton Beckford, a vice-president at the University of Windsor in Ontario, said at a town hall last week. Officials there noted a 25 per cent drop in international enrolment, a tuition shortfall of at least $10 million and an expected budget gap of $30 million for the next fiscal year.
Job losses are also expected at Camosun College in B.C. It projected a budget deficit of about $5 million, according to Lynelle Yutani, its faculty association president.
"We're not being told exactly what is in the budget that could be eliminated, other than jobs and programs," said the health and human services instructor.
In the past 30 years, Yutani says, provincial funding for B.C. institutions has fallen from about 80 per cent of schools' budgets to below 50 per cent, also noted by the B.C. Federation of Post-Secondary Educators.
Camosun's international enrolment — about 15 per cent of students — hasn't been as high as some peers, but without a contingency plan, any rapid shift can force an institution into making deep cuts.
"That's what we're seeing," she said. "We really need to change our thinking [from] 'Why are we paying for education?'
"It should be 'How come we're not investing enough in post-secondary education?'"
Prediction: rocky times ahead
Overall, the sector is staring down "a very, very unpleasant few years," where students may soon pay more for less, Usher says.
"You either have to make institutions cheaper to run or you have to have more public money come in.... That could come from government or it could come from [higher] domestic tuition fees," he said.
"There's not a lot of magic bullets."
Corrections
- An earlier version of this story said Seneca closed one of its college campuses in October. In fact, it said in October one of its campuses will temporarily close after this term. The story has been updated.Nov 25, 2024 4:21 PM ET
With files from Deana Sumanac-Johnson and Tess Ha
