Plugging into the electric car market
| A selection of all-electric cars: |
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| For a list of upcoming electric and hybrid vehicles, visit the Electric Drive Transportation Association's website. |
The big players have outlined their bold ambitions, but who will rule the still nascent market is anyone's guess.
"It'll be a real horse race," said David Cole, chairman of the U.S. Center for Automotive Research. "You'd certainly think that the Chinese are going to be very active."
The New York Times reported in early April that China has vowed to dominate the field in three years, not only in hopes of cleaning up air in smog-thick cities but also to reduce reliance on foreign oil and to cash in on a burgeoning market.
By the end of 2011, China aims to raise annual production capacity to 500,000 hybrid or all-electric vehicles, a steep climb from last year's production of 2,100.
Though the lofty goal is not without its caveats, China is powering ahead. The country's largest automaker, BYD — partly owned by one of billionaire investor Warren Buffett's companies — is hoping to make its all-electric car available soon to consumers. However, the vehicle's iron-phosphate battery pack, which can reportedly take the car 400 kilometres on a single charge, remains prohibitively expensive. The company's chairman says China will have to provide incentives to make the vehicle affordable for the country's consumers.
BYD is also planning on selling the car in a few American markets by the end of 2010.
Nissan unveiled a prototype of its all-electric car — the Leaf — in the summer of 2009. By mid-December, the company was showing it off in selected markets — including Vancouver — where several hundred vehicles will be sold. The Leaf is one of the world's first mass-produced, highway-capable, battery-powered automobiles.
Detroit's future?
The United States, too, is gearing up for a race — and hoping the electrification of the vehicle might save its ailing automakers.
The federal government's stimulus package included $2 billion in grants for advanced battery manufacturing, plus the Department of Energy plans to distribute $25 billion in low-interest loans to encourage companies to build green vehicles.
U.S. President Barack Obama has vowed to have one million plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2015.
That may only be a small dent in the 250 million vehicles now on American roads but some auto experts are still calling it a pipe dream.
"It's a possibility, but it's probably a stretch," said Cole.
"Politicians tend to talk often without really being grounded in the fundamental knowledge of the technology or what it takes to scale the technology. Talk is really cheap. You don't find many technically sophisticated people that will make those kind of claims," said Cole.
Many of the obstacles revolve around the batteries, including their bulky size, the hours-long charges required, safety issues, their lifespan, and low range and speed.
| Zenn and the art of e-cars |
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| Auto experts had their headlights trained on the Toronto-based ZENN Motor Company to see if it would live up to its hype. Its two-seat, all-electric vehicle can reach a top speed of 40 km/h and runs up to 80 kilometres on an eight-hour charge. In Canada, only B.C. and Quebec are allowing the low-speed vehicle on their roads, while the U.S. permits it on roads with low speed limits. About 500 ZENNs, which stands for Zero Emission, No Noise, have been sold in the U.S. Unlike many electric vehicles, which use lithium-ion batteries, ZENNS use lead-acid ones. On Sept. 24, 2009, the company announced it would be shifting gears. Its primary focus for highway-capable transportation, will be through selling its electric drivetrain to other automakers. It won't develop its low-speed vehicle for use on highways. |
| (Source: ZENN Motor Company ) |
"The battery has been the unknown because of the uncertainty with respect to getting it to work effectively," said Cole.
The average consumer still can't afford the higher price tag for electric or hybrid cars, and no automaker has yet made the commitment to mass produce the vehicles.
Cole says he doubts any company will invest heavily in the early stages of electric battery development, instead choosing to latch on once the hardest work is done.
"One of the philosophies of business is to be a fast follower: Let someone else pioneer or develop a market and then you come along with a much better developed technology at a lower cost and occupy the market," said Cole.
He predicts production of about 10,000 to 15,000 units until one or two generations of electric batteries have been released.
"It's going to take at least three or four years before we really begin to get scale on batteries," said Cole.
While the British government hasn't expressed intentions of dominating the market, it is trying to encourage hybrid and electric car ownership. In mid-April, it announced a plan to subsidize first-time buyers of electric or plug-in hybrid cars by up to £5,000 beginning in 2011.
It's part of a larger £250-million package to promote low carbon transport over the next five years that also includes money to establish charging stations.
Here in Canada, the government has been almost as silent as the electric car.
The federal government has set up a Canadian Electric Vehicle Technology Road Map (evTRM) to look at what role Canada can play in the market, but so far little more than a vague vision has emerged.
The committee has said it wants to see 500,000 highway-capable, plug-in electric vehicles on Canadian roads by 2018. A detailed road map is set to be released in May.
Electric Mobility Canada's Al Cormier, who is a committee member, says the plan will cover "A to Z" on how Canada should adapt, including changing building codes to allow plug-ins, adapting college curricula to teach the new technology and introducing incentives for consumers.
But one of the bumps in the road to increasing electric car ownership in Canada is the lack of vehicles for sale at Canadian dealerships, since the smaller market isn't as profitable for manufacturers. Also, low-speed all-electric cars, such as the Toronto-based ZENN, aren't allowed on many roads.
The vehicles made by ZENN, which stands for zero emission no noise, are not allowed in many states on the other side of the border, and are only permitted in Quebec and B.C.
In the U.S., the ZENN is classified as a Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle, allowing it to travel only on low-speed roads. As with many such vehicles, ZENN is limited in the length of its charge and its top speed of 40 km/h.
ZENN founder Ian Clifford, though, has high hopes for faster, longer-lasting vehicles. However, Clifford says they won't be built by his company. But he hopes their drivetrains are. Zenn is now focusing its efforts on making its electric-power drivetrain the drivetrain of choice for other automakers.
No matter what the future holds, one thing is for certain, according to Cole: the race is well underway and it's one worth watching.
"Stay tuned. Things are going to change fast," he says.