Region tops 500 known COVID-19 cases

Eastern Ontario and western Quebec have now reached 500 known cases of COVID-19, with both Ottawa and Gatineau doubling their numbers since Monday.

Public health officials reported 37 new cases of the respiratory illness in Ottawa on Friday, bringing the city's total to 289. Five days ago there were just 130.

Six new cases in the Outaouais Friday brings that area's total to 81, with the vast majority in Gatineau, Que. That's up from 38 cases on Monday.

There are now more than 500 confirmed cases in the wider region, with seven deaths linked to coronavirus.

Worst, best-case scenarios

On Friday, Ontario also released its projections on how COVID-19 might affect the province. 

Provincial health experts expect the respiratory illness could kill between 3,000 to 15,000 people and may affect the province for up to two years.

The modelling also suggests Ontario's number of intensive care beds — hospital beds that can provide a patient with life-saving breathing support — may only suffice in a "best-case" scenario where the infection curve is significantly flattened by physical distancing and self-isolation.

In a "worst-case" scenario, where the virus spreads rapidly and widely, the number of people who could need beds may be more than double what's available, the models project. 

In the Champlain region, there are currently 3,400 hospital beds, as well as the capacity for more than 300 critical care beds with ventilators, said Dr. Andrew Willmore, medical director of emergency management with The Ottawa Hospital.

For now, Ottawa is prepared to meet any short-term surge in critical patients, Willmore said, and intends to increase capacity as needed.

"In our contingency planning, we look for worst-case scenarios in terms of how we start preparing," he said. 

Still, what will help the health-care system the most are the things everyone can do in their own lives, Willmore said — staying home and staying safe.

"So physical distancing, self-isolation if you're symptomatic, following the advice of public health — that is what makes sure that the capacity that we have will be sufficient," he said. 

99 deaths in Ontario, 61 in Quebec

Ontario as a whole has 3,255 cases, up 462 from yesterday. That includes 99 deaths linked to the coronavirus and 1,023 cases considered resolved.

Quebec is up to 6,101 confirmed or suspected cases, up 583 from Thursday, and is reporting 61 deaths, 25 of them new since Thursday's update.

Health officials note that because of the lag between infection and symptoms, as well as ongoing challenges with testing, the confirmed cases likely represent just a fraction of the actual number of cases in the community. That's why it's vital to follow advice about physical distancing and staying home.