Wynne may have exceeded expectations in leaders' debate, but does it matter?
Horwath now focus of attacks, while Ford sticks to same message
Kathleen Wynne must surely be tired of being asked why no one likes her.
But the Liberal leader tackled the indignity head-on in Sunday night's provincial election debate.
"I'm really, genuinely sorry that more people don't like me," Wynne said. "But I am not sorry about all the things we're doing in Ontario to make life better." And then she went on to list accomplishments of which she was proud, including tuition grants and a higher minimum wage.
Despite her "sorry, not sorry" message, Wynne wasn't apologetic; her comments were crisp and pointed. She kept that tone throughout the 90 minutes of sparring with PC Leader Doug Ford and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath. It was Wynne who sounded most like a premier.
But did it matter?
"Kathleen Wynne had a difficult task, and she did very well, but she needed to do more than just well," said Geneviève Tellier, a political studies professor at the University of Ottawa. "I don't see how she can convince that many Ontarians to change their minds."
Focus turns to Horwath
Even in this unpredictable campaign, it's difficult to see any path to victory for the trailing Liberals come election day on June 7.
That's why the focus was on Horwath, who has seen an unprecedented surge in opinion polls since this campaign started. In a debate almost three weeks ago, Horwath aimed to set herself apart from the other two parties. Now, she is at the centre of their attacks.
Wynne slammed her for promising never to use back-to-work legislation.
"I know you're beholden to unions, Andrea," said the Liberal leader, charging that the NDP were too tied to ideology.
Meanwhile, Ford went after Horwath for a $7-billion mistake on the NDP's projected deficit and for refusing to dismiss a Scarborough candidate who shared an Adolf Hitler meme on social media several years ago.
The deficit error, which Horwath has acknowledged and corrected, was made worse by the fact she said the NDP have been working on their platform for two years. As for the candidate with the Hitler meme, there's virtually no way to make that sound OK.
Still, Horwath was able to take advantage of the subject of questionable candidates, referring to the PC candidate who had to step down amid allegations of stolen data from the Highway 407 corporation.
"Mr. Ford, you of all people, you have police investigations, by three different police forces into candidates, not from things that were dug up 10 years ago on Facebook, but right now from data that was stolen from 407 records," she charged. "That's you and your candidates and your party."
Horwath was more on the defensive during this debate, yet able to hold her own. She came out ahead on a segment on health care, as the NDP are promising to spend more on base hospital funding and beds than the other two parties. She was probably at her best when attacking Ford for not spelling out where he'd find $6 billion in cuts or for releasing a costed platform yet.
"People started voting yesterday, Mr. Ford. Where is your platform?" she said. "Where is your respect for the people now, when they are at the polls and you haven't provided them any information about what it is that you plan to do in our province?"
She interrupted Ford frequently, which at moments bordered on seeming undisciplined, but could just as easily be seen as commanding the stage.
"Horwath's performance reflected her momentum in the polls," said Ihor Korbabicz, a senior researcher at Abacus Data. "She didn't give anyone warming up to her a reason to walk away."
Ford didn't change narrative
Of the three leaders, Ford's outing was the most static compared to the previous debate.
He was definitely more comfortable — in fact, they all performed better this time around — but had a few uncertain moments near the start. He was cut off for running long in his opening statement, and soon afterward appeared to be confused by the debate process. (Wynne immediately tried to explain it to him. When Ford made a joke about it later, Horwath quipped: "Good, you're catching on.")
These moments "chipped away at that veneer of credibility" that Ford needed to project, said Korbabicz. "I'm not sure he did what he needed to do to consolidate his position."
Ford definitely had some good moments, particularly when trying to paint the other parties as believing in "big government."
And, new to this debate, Ford tried to stir up fear of what an NDP government would mean for Ontario, imploring viewers to ask their boss "what would happen to my job, God forbid the NDP ever got in.… I know the answer — they'd be gone."
Despite Ford's arguments, the previous NDP government of the early 1990s did not cause the recession. But the overwhelmingly negative associations that voters of a certain age have with that era of Ontario politics could work. Expect to hear more about that era.
Still, Ford needed to do better than maintain his current position. The PC lead has fallen by a stunning 10 percentage points in the last couple of months, more than half of that since the campaign began. He's lost support among change-seeking voters to the NDP, and his performance Sunday did nothing to alleviate the fears of those who worry his financial plan is vague at best.
"I was surprised by how similar his narrative was from the beginning of the campaign, said Tellier. "With the shift in the polls, I was expecting something a bit different."
Just showing up may have been enough for Ford when he was the undisputed front-runner. But with an energized Horwath at his heels, and a nothing-to-lose Wynne bringing up the rear, Ford needs to do more than maintain the status quo to win this most unconventional of election campaigns.
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