Can the Confederation Line be both safe and pose a risk? Apparently, yes

"The O-Train is safe," the head of OC Transpo found herself saying Thursday. "I personally took the train yesterday from my house to the office … and I will take the train again, and again, and again."

Speaking at the inaugural meeting of council's new LRT oversight group, Renée Amilcar said that OC Transpo wouldn't let the Confederation Line operate if she had even the tiniest worry about the system's safety. 

"J'aime ma vie," she said, to chuckles from LRT subcommittee members.

That the general manager of the city's transit department would have to say any of this out loud — and repeatedly — isn't a good sign. But it was a necessary reassurance after a report from the Transportation Safety Board (TSB) found that the mechanical failures that led to a derailment in August 2021 and a potential one last summer "pose a risk to safety."

• Issues that caused LRT derailment still 'pose a risk to safety': TSB report

So can a light-rail system that poses a potential safety risk also be safe? Apparently, yes.

Even the TSB says so.

"I'd ride it myself," Robert Johnston, TSB's regional manager of rail operations, told CBC.

But he said there is still "the risk of reoccurring, of another failure" of one — or more — of the parts that make the wheels go round, including the axle and the roller bearings. 

In the August 2021 derailment, a wheel was severed from the axle due to a "catastrophic bearing failure," according to the TSB. In July 2022, an inspection that took place only after an operator noticed some weird vibration found that an axle hub was so severely damaged it would also have failed completely — possibly causing another derailment —if it had remained in service.

Johnston pointed out that the axle hub failure from last July happened within the regular planned maintenance. That's why soon after the incident, transit officials and Rideau Transit Group (RTG) implemented a much stricter inspection and part-replacement timetable.

"You're talking about scrapping components at 175,000 kilometres that should last 1.2 million kilometres," said Johnston.

He said the city has made a "substantial effort" to mitigate the risks, which is why he and others say the Confederation Line is safe to ride.

Still, these expensive Band-Aid measures can't continue for decades.

RTG's maintenance arm is paid between $4 million and $5 million a month to maintain the LRT, but it can't keep eating the costs of these extraordinary measures forever. More to the point, customers shouldn't have to use a light-rail system that a federal safety board says still carries a risk of mechanical failure, or ride a train that slows down substantially when it goes around curves in an effort to keep train parts from conking out.

The good news is everyone agrees the wheel-axle related parts are a problem. The bad news is no one seems to know for sure why it's happening, let alone what to do about it.

The TSB report points to the actual design of the train cars as a possible reason for the failures. French train-maker Alstom designed the Citadis Spirit specifically to Ottawa's specifications. It's longer, heavier and goes faster than a normal light-rail vehicle, or tram. 

The parts used in Ottawa's trains, which the TSB found were built to the manufacturer's specifications, worked fine in other Alstom models. And investigators found nothing wrong with individual components, rather "damage was widely spread throughout the assemblies."

And at the end of the day, said Johnston, what's different in Ottawa's case is the Citadis Spirit design. It may be that the heft of our trains is causing more torque, leading to accelerated wear and tear on parts.

• Alstom was 'pushing the limit' of what a light rail car can do, inquiry hears
• Theories of August 2021 train derailment emerge at LRT inquiry

One key TSB recommendation the city has resisted has to do with heat-detection systems. As far back as September 2021, the safety board has urged the city to install monitors that could warn of overheating in the roller bearing assemblies. And the TSB was pushing the monitors in its most recent letter, too.

Up until now, the city and Alstom have argued that the heat-detection monitors work with heavy freight trains, like the ones used by Via Rail. The design of the light-rail vehicle doesn't allow for the monitors. Instead, OC Transpo and RTG are trying out vibration monitors — there are 10 installed already, with more on order.

This week though, OC Transpo's director of engineering services has changed his tune.

Richard Holder told the LRT subcommittee that given the TSB found an elevated heat level in the axle assembly in last summer's problem train, he's reconsidering the use of heat detectors. Where he'll find them is unclear, as he told councillors staff cannot find another light-rail system in North America or Europe that uses these types of monitors.

But everyone seems to be throwing every idea they've got at the problem.

According to Amilcar, the city and RTG and Alstom are meeting weekly. Consultants TRA are brought into the discussion when necessary. RTG has promised to provide more technical support as part of a recent legal settlement agreement that saw the city make retroactive maintenance payments.

• LRT settlement gives builders millions in back pay, keeps their contract
• LRT inquiry commissioner still concerned about wheel and track problems

While TSB has looked at the train components, others are reviewing track infrastructure, the rail itself, switches, even the lubrication that's used.

And the National Research Council has been hired to look at the interaction between the wheel and the rail, which was raised as a possible cause of the component failures, including during the light-rail public inquiry.

Interestingly, TSB's Johnston told CBC he doesn't think there's anything wrong with wheel-track interface because if there was, "you would have cars derailing in curves … and we're not seeing any evidence of that at all."

All to say there's hardly consensus on how to fix this thing. The deadline? Before the eastern Stage 2 extension opens in 2025. But no long-term solutions can be put in place until the root cause analysis is complete and there's no timeline yet for that — a full 18 months after the first derailment. 

In the meantime, Confederation Line riders have little choice except to use a light-rail system that is safe, but nevertheless still carries a potential risk.