More health restrictions likely coming to counter Omicron, experts say
Tighter public health restrictions will likely follow the jump in confirmed cases
A recent spike in cases in Kingston, Ont., which has made its COVID-19 infection rate the worst in the province, will arrive in Ottawa soon, according to infectious disease specialists.
"Omicron is going to present some very serious challenges for everyone in Canada very soon," said Doug Manuel, a senior scientist with The Ottawa Hospital who models local COVID-19 numbers. "It's going to be coming very quickly."
The Kingston area health unit has the highest rate of COVID-19 infection in Ontario with over 400 cases per one million people per day. Ottawa Public Health currently sits around 75.
Manuel expects Ottawa to see similar rapid increases in COVID-19 infections in the coming days, driven largely by the highly transmissible Omicron variant.
So far, the health unit has confirmed eight cases of the new variant in Ottawa, but the number of known COVID-19 cases in the city has nearly doubled in the last 10 days.
Severity unknown, but hospitals still at risk
Manuel said the severity of Omicron is still unknown, but its high transmissibility means it could still pose a challenge to local hospitals.
"We still can't satisfy ourselves that severity isn't going to be a problem," Manuel said.
The Omicron variant has a doubling rate of three days, according to the latest update from the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table. Cases of the delta variant, by comparison, take 34 days to double.
That extremely high rate of transmission means Omicron would have to be "a lot less" severe than delta for the health-care system to not be affected by this current surge, Manuel added.
Public health restrictions likely to follow
Dr. Gerald Evans, chair of the division of infectious disease at Queen's University, said he favours strict public health restrictions to ensure hospitals and intensive care units aren't overwhelmed.
"If you're going to bring in measures, you need to bring them in quickly and forcefully to try and really stem the tide," he said.
The Kingston-area public health unit issued gathering limits and restrictions on bars and restaurants effective Monday evening.
The rollout of health restrictions in Windsor, Sudbury and now Kingston is a "good indication" other health units across the province will follow suit, Manuel said.
"If you've been in a very good situation, you can't rest on your laurels," he said. "We're in a different part of the pandemic."