5 charts that show us where Ottawa might be heading

There is no crystal ball when it comes to COVID-19, but scientists are still working on models and projections — all based on hard data — to try to peer into the future. 

Ashleigh Tuite, an assistant professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, is part of a team that's devised a national dashboard to give health units across the country some ability to plan in the short term.

"It tends to be fairly good at anticipating when the outbreak is going to peak before it peaks," she said, adding that her team's models lined up with peaks in Italy and China.

The tool has limitations, said Tuite, but it can be helpful to gauge how well the virus is under control and how much transmission communities should expect. 

The projections for both for Ottawa and Ontario, Tuite said, seem to show physical distancing measures are slowing down the rate of infection. 

"I feel more optimistic that the measures that we've had in place for the last couple of weeks are starting to show an effect," said Tuite.

"Things seem to be improving."

The forecast for COVID-19 in Ottawa

While it's tempting to look at Ottawa's curve and conclude cases in the city may have already peaked, Tuite said it's too early to celebrate. 

For now, she has more confidence in provincial forecasts which rely on much more data than what's available from individual health units.

The forecast for COVID-19 in Ontario

Doug Manuel, senior scientist at The Ottawa Hospital, has developed more local projections. Instead of using data from health units, the tool uses data from all the hospitals in Ottawa.

Manuel said his projections help show the effect physical distancing and self-isolation can have on both the number of cases and their severity.

"We're seeing really important effects, depending on the level of control and prevention that we do," he said.

If the city maintains a high level of physical distancing, his model suggests the peak may not happen for several months. Still, Manuel said it's important not to dwell too much on that. 

Patients in acute care at Ottawa hospitals

Forecasting epidemics months into the future is like forecasting the weather a year from now, said Manuel, who prefers to see a distant peak as a sign the city has more time to prepare.

"We need that breathing space," he said. "There's a lot of options coming online."

More breathing space means more time to acquire ventilators, implement more testing and better screening measures and possibly get a treatment or a vaccine in place for future patients.

Delaying the peak or planking the curve means saving lives, he said. 

Hospital deaths in Ottawa

A poll commissioned by Ottawa Public Health suggests the vast majority of Ottawans say they're abiding by physical distancing guidance.

Dr. Vera Etches, the city's medical officer of health, reported to council Wednesday that 85 per cent of respondents vowed they were staying two metres away from people as much as possible. 

"That's definitely encouraging," said Manuel of those results.

Number of people with COVID-19 in Ottawa

If anything, Manuel said his models show the "profound" impact that measures like staying home have on the number of cases and the number of deaths. 

Both Tuite and Manuel say their models will grow more reliable as time goes on and they can draw on more data.