'Nature of the race' behind increase in Ottawa advance voting, expert says

More Ottawans voted in early advance polls ahead of this year's municipal election than in previous years, and a University of Ottawa political scientist says he expects overall voter turnout to also be higher.

In four advance voting days from Sept. 24 to 27, where eligible voters could drop by any of nine locations across the city, 18,876 Ottawans cast a ballot. 

That's an increase of more than 3,000 over 2018 and more than 10,000 over 2014, when special advance polls debuted and were open for just three days.

"It's an indication that people are more engaged," said Daniel Stockemer, a political scientist at the University of Ottawa who studies political participation.

Early signs of increased interest, Stockemer said, are likely driven by two factors: a competitive mayoral race and the highly "politicized environment" in Ottawa following this winter's convoy occupation.

"It's the nature of the race," he said. "People realize how important it is for them to vote or to be engaged at the municipal level."

Stockemer estimated the city could see turnout as high as 60 per cent. That's well above the average for Ontario municipal elections, in which less than half of eligible voters normally make it to the polls.

Just 42.2 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot in the 2018 Ottawa election, for example, and only 39.9 per cent did so in 2014.

Advance polls 'too early,' political scientist says

Advance poll locations attracted a "good, steady flow," said Michèle Rochette, manager of municipal elections with the City of Ottawa.

Rochette said Elections Ottawa chose to expand early voting opportunities due to the program's "success and popularity" and to "better serve electors in every ward."

Stockemer said the people who cast ballots ahead of time would normally vote regardless, but the turnout for advance voting is a useful indication of how engaged people are with the election.

He added he'd prefer if advance voting was actually held a bit closer to the end of the campaign.

"The timing — it's too early," he said. "Especially for a municipal election where the mayor is no longer running and where in some ridings you have a lot of candidates, it's tough to make up your mind."

With candidates running as independents at the local level, voters are much harder pressed to inform themselves, Stockemer said. They may need the extra month of campaigning before they know which candidate they want to support.

He praised Elections Ottawa's "Voters in Training" program, which debuted at special advance vote locations and allowed kids to practice voting by casting a fake ballot alongside their parents.

Two remaining advance voting Fridays are scheduled to take place from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Oct. 7 and 14.

Election day is Monday, Oct. 24.