White Christmas more dream than reality in the Maritimes

Are you dreaming of a white Christmas just like the one you used to know?

Those iconic lyrics from the 1940s Christmas classic are increasingly ringing true with each passing year across the Maritimes.

While white Christmases still occur in the region, the chances that you'll experience one in any given year have been dropping over the past few decades — thanks to climate change.

Environment Canada and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) looked at 45 locations across the country and found that overall the chance of a white Christmas has dropped 14 per cent in the 25-year period from 1997 to 2021, compared to the 1960 to 1984 time frame.

Here in the Maritimes, the change has been far more dramatic, with an average drop of 32 per cent when comparing the 25-year periods.

Of the six locations that ECCC studied here, Fredericton and Charlottetown saw the most notable drops with chances of a white Christmas. It dropped from near 90 per cent from 1960 to 1984 down to near and less than 50 per cent over the past 25 years.

Halifax, Sydney and Saint John all saw chances of a white Christmas drop by near 30 per cent.

We also see that over the past 25 years, if you've been lucky enough to experience a white Christmas, the amount of snow on the ground has also decreased. 

In the 1960s, '70s and early '80s, the average snow depth on those white Christmas mornings was 10 to 20 centimetres. More recently, if you've been lucky enough to have snow on Christmas, the average depth was less than 10 centimetres.

Our chances for this Christmas

So what about this year? 

A storm rolling into Eastern Canada late this week will wash away any chance of a white Christmas across most of Nova Scotia and P.E.I. 

The storm is set to arrive late Friday and into Saturday, bringing heavy rain and strong southerly winds, which will push temperatures into the high single and potentially even low double digits.

With the exception of the Cape Breton Highlands and Cobequid Mountains, any snow in Nova Scotia and P.E.I. will very likely be long gone by the time we get to Christmas morning.

In New Brunswick, your white Christmas chances will depend on where you live.

After more snow this past weekend, northern areas of New Brunswick will likely be able to hang onto enough snow for Christmas morning.

In the south, places like Saint John and St. Stephen look likely to lose most — if not all — of what is on the ground now.

A white Christmas is a tougher call for areas stretching from Moncton to Fredericton. Much will depend on how much rain we see, exactly how warm it gets, and how long we're above zero during the storm. Based on the current outlook, I'm thinking these areas will at least see some patches of grass by Sunday morning.

As for the storm itself, be sure to stay tuned for updates over the next few days, especially if you have travel plans.