Rural Reckoning: The challenge of a stagnant population
Pollster Don Mills says a declining, aging population could create problems down the road
It is perhaps not surprising that Nova Scotia, like much of Atlantic Canada, has consistently trailed the country in economic growth for much of the last 30 years or so.
Indeed, Nova Scotia has been dead last in economic growth in Canada for 20 of the last 22 years. One major consequence of weak economic conditions has been population stagnation, with Nova Scotia having the lowest population growth in Canada in the last census, and with little prospect of improvement in this regard in next year's census.
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Another major consequence has been the continuing out-migration of our young people.
About a year ago, more people died than were born in Nova Scotia for the first time in our history. This trend will accelerate over the next 20 years or so as the baby boomers begin to die in large numbers.
In other words, Nova Scotia cannot grow its population organically, but must depend on attracting people from outside the province to grow our population. This is difficult in a province that has averaged only 1.1 per cent in real economic growth over the past seven years since the great recession.
The lack of economic opportunities makes it difficult to attract newcomers to our province.
To some extent, the composition of our population, especially in terms of its distribution, is the reason for our weak economic performance on a long-term basis.
Rural life is expensive
Nova Scotia, like the rest of Atlantic Canada, has a disproportionately large percentage of our population living in rural communities compared with the national average and the other provinces in Canada.
Indeed, while about one in five Canadians live in rural communities — defined as communities with less than 5,000 residents — Nova Scotia has more than twice as many living in rural communities.
There are two economic consequences of this reality. The first is the higher cost of providing public services to a more widely distributed population than for provinces with higher concentrations of populations in larger urban communities.
The second is the limited economic opportunities associated with smaller rural communities and their higher dependence on seasonal work.
The comparably higher dependence on seasonal work has been a drag on the province's ability to grow our economy at the same pace as other parts of the country with less dependence on seasonal work.
By 2030, there will be 100,000 more Nova Scotians aged 65 years or older. Most of these individuals will leave the workplace, leaving a vacuum in the number workers available to fill their positions.
The cost of health care will skyrocket as a consequence, yet fewer working-aged taxpayers will be available to pay
for those increasing health care costs.
We need newcomers
Nova Scotia will need to attract workers from outside the province in record numbers to ensure an adequate labour force is available to keep our economy functioning at a sustainable level.
That is why the Ivany Commission recommended the need for net immigration of 7,000 new residents each year to replace those leaving the workplace over the next 15 years. This past year we attracted 2,500 net new immigrants as a comparison.
Clearly, Nova Scotia has a long way to go to achieve its immigration goal.
Unfortunately, Nova Scotians are not yet particularly receptive or welcoming when it comes to new immigrants. Much of this is based on the perceived competition for scarce jobs. This attitude is mainly due to a lack of experience of living in a diverse population and not understanding the economic benefits and the entrepreneurial skills that immigrants bring to a new country.
Only about four per cent of Nova Scotians were born in another country. The average for Canada is more than four times higher. Half the people living in Toronto were born outside the country.
But Nova Scotia will need to change if it is to keep its economy going to maintain the types of public services expected by its citizens, or at least those left living in the province.
Don Mills is chairman and CEO of Corporate Research Associates.