Hurricane Gonzalo will impact Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

It sure didn't feel much like mid-October in the Maritimes today. It was very warm for this time of the year. Aside from the warmth though, you can almost feel some big changes in the weather are headed our way.

Many locations in the Maritimes today saw daytime high temperatures in the low 20s. Several high-temperature records for today were matched or exceeded in the Maritimes.

The record-setting warmth is a result of air being drawn up from the southeastern U.S. and into the Maritimes by the circulation around the still strong area of high pressure to our southeast. While the rest of the week will continue to be warm, it sure won't be dry.

The next system headed our way is a cold front that will stretch from a low pressure centre moving into northern Quebec on Friday. While the centre of that weather system does not move into the Maritimes, the front will be sweeping through late Thursday into Friday. During that time, we can expect rain — heavy in some locations — and gusty winds to be moving through. The front extends far enough into the subtropical Atlantic that it may syphon off some moisture from Hurricane Gonzalo.

This makes for a difficult forecast for rainfall amounts, but it does appear that the southwest of Nova Scotia and the southwest of New Brunswick are at risk of some local amounts of 50+ mm Thursday night through Friday.

That brings us to Hurricane Gonzalo. Late this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Gonzalo to a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 215 km/h. This makes Gonzalo officially the strongest hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Gonzalo will approach Bermuda early Friday morning and a hurricane watch — which occurs when hurricane conditions are expected within 48 hours — has been issued for that country. 

What will Gonzalo mean for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland?

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has also been busy with Gonzalo. They have issued tropical cyclone information statements for both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

After Gonzalo passes by Bermuda, it is forecast to skirt the Atlantic marine districts off of Nova Scotia late Friday into Saturday. The Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland remains centred within the forecast cone, the area within which the track the hurricane is expected to take. The forecast cone is accurate 60 to 70 per cent of the time.

The Avalon Peninsula could see impacts from the storm Saturday through early Sunday. Significant winds and hazardous wave growth are anticipated over marine areas in the vicinity of the passing storm. 

There is still time for significant changes to both the track and strength of Gonzalo, and even the current track has an approximate width of near 600 km from west to east that Gonzalo could take a path through. 

As all official weather warnings are issued by Environment Canada, it is highly recommended to monitor weather.gc.ca for updates and further information.