House of Assembly spring sitting: 5 things to watch

The Nova Scotia House of Assembly begins its spring sitting on Thursday. Here are five things to watch:

1. How much bad news will there really be in the budget?

The budget is usually the single most important item of any spring sitting. But that wasn’t the case last spring, when the governing Liberals introduced essential services legislation, which sparked union protests and forced MLAs to sit around the clock.

Things should be back to normal this spring, although Premier Stephen McNeil has repeatedly promised a fiscal plan designed to get the province back in the black by the end of his mandate.

That means the governing Liberals have to find a way to raise enough revenue or cut spending to make up the current $220 million budget shortfall.

Former Ontario cabinet minister Laurel Broten, who was hired by the province to look at tax and regulatory reform, made 42 recommendations, including an HST hike, income tax cuts and the creation of a new carbon tax.

Finance Minister Diana Whalen has said: “Everything in the report is on the table for discussion. And we’re looking at all of them.”

Budget “goodies” will be sparse in this fiscal plan. Look instead for cuts, fee increases and possibly a new health premium.

2. Will re-organizing the health unions go smoothly this time?

Premier Stephen McNeil recently reached a deal to bring an end to his government’s ham-fisted attempt to reorganize the province’s four health unions. He still needs to bring in a bill to formalize that deal. Question is, will that proposed law be as advertised, or will it include something unexpected?

This is a file that has caused the government, the unions and their members plenty of grief and anxiety, and may eventually cost Leo Glavine his job as health minister.

3. Will the opposition parties finally find some traction?

The governing Liberals are 18 months into their mandate and continue to ride high in the polls. According to Corporate Research Associates, which tracks satisfaction in the government every three months, the McNeil government continues to enjoy the support of 60 per cent of Nova Scotians polled.

Although the opposition parties continue to churn out news releases daily, complaining about particular problems or highlighting specific issues, none of that has made much of a dent in terms of government support.

Both the official opposition PCs and the third place NDP garner the support of roughly 20 percent of those polled by CRA.

According to Don Mills, chairman and chief executive of CRA, neither opposition party has yet found an issue that resonates with voters.

There’s a chance this budget may provide them with that issue.

4. What is Andrew Younger’s fate?

The minister of energy, Andrew Younger, is expected to take his seat in the house this week, but it’s unclear if or when he will resume his cabinet duties. That means acting energy minister Michel Samson will be fielding questions on energy, as well as tourism, economic development, Acadian issues and issues related to Communications Nova Scotia.

Unless the premier has a change of heart, Younger will be relegated to the job of a backbencher, which is to applaud on cue and be in the house to keep quorum.

Younger is technically on leave to deal with unspecified “personal issues” related to an assault he suffered on the day the Liberals were sworn in. A former Liberal staffer has been charged and last week pleaded not guilty last week. The case is back before the courts on Nov. 4.

5. How will this sitting set the tone for coming public sector negotiations?

In any budget, the government sets money aside in a category called “restructuring costs.” This amount fluctuates wildly and includes money to settle contracts.

Last year the province earmarked $27 million for restructuring.

In 2012-2013, the NDP squirrelled away $165 million.

This year, the government needs to negotiate new contracts with teachers, health workers, as well as civil servants.

Premier Stephen McNeil has repeatedly claimed the province can no longer afford the salary increases of the past.

In fact, according to the province, the raises currently being enjoyed by public sector employees are going to cost the province about $750 million. That’s the cumulative total of raises of two per cent, 2.5 per cent and three per cent.

“There’s just a big disconnect between the performance of our economy and the kind of settlements we’ve had, so we just need to bring it into line,” McNeil recently said. “We need to look at how we can bring all of our spending into line and labour costs are the largest single costs we have.”

McNeil has said the government isn’t looking for a wage rollback, but has not ruled out a freeze.

How much the province sets aside in “restructuring costs” will signal just how tough the province will be in those upcoming negotiations.