Greying population bad for economy: conference
Rural Nova Scotia’s aging and shrinking population could make it harder for government to raise tax dollars for services like schools and health care, a conference in Wolfville was told Tuesday.
In 15 years, the province will have 30 per cent fewer students and 70 per cent more senior citizens, creating a shortage of tax-paying workers, county councillors and rural economic development leaders heard at the Union of Nova Scotian Municipalities’ 2010 Population Forum.
Nova Scotia’s total population, which was 939,475 as of April last year, could dip below 900,000 by 2025.
"It’s a complex issue, the rural population decline, and there are no magic bullets," said David Bruce, an expert on rural communities at Mount Allison University. He was one of the guest speakers at the conference.
Nova Scotia in 2026, if nothing changes:
- Population: 895,000, down 4.6 per cent from 2004.
- Seniors (65+): up by 70.8 per cent.
- Primary and secondary students: down 31.5 per cent.
- University-aged population: down 29.8 per cent.
- Traditional workforce: drops three times faster than population as a whole.
(Source: Population Forum 2010)
In 2006, Nova Scotia’s population accounted for 2.8 per cent of the national total, down from 4.5 per cent in 1951. Experts suggest declining birth rates, outmigration and a lack of immigration have contributed to the province’s slow growth.
Nova Scotia attracts 0.7 per cent of newcomers to Canada, down from 1.3 per cent between 1971 and 1976.
The shrinking tax base means that by 2013-14, Nova Scotia could face a $1.4 billion structural deficit, according to the forum.
Retaining local young people, bringing back those who have left, tapping into the growing black and Mi’kmaq populations and attracting immigrants were cited as ways to counter the decline.
Bruce urged rural areas to look at building relationships with high schools to stay in touch with graduates.
If they do return, he urged municipalities to make sure "somebody’s there telling them, ‘Hey, did you think about sticking around?’"
The Department of Labour and Workforce Development estimates that 56,000 jobs will open up in the province by 2014, with 47,000 of these job openings coming through retirements.
But the province’s labour force has grown by just 1.1 per cent in the last decade and is forecast to slow to 0.1 per cent for the next three years.