When is the next Nova Scotia election? Depends on the teachers: Graham Steele
The McNeil Liberals can't go into an election with the teachers' dispute still simmering
Happy election year!
There will almost certainly be a provincial election in 2017.
The only reason we don't know for sure is that Nova Scotia bucked the fixed-date fad. We're the only province without a law stipulating an exact voting day.
So when will Premier Stephen McNeil pull the plug and call an election?
My money's on the summer, but the imbroglio with teachers has to be fixed first.
4-year norm
Here's a quick review of election rules and conventions:
The constitution says there can be no more than five years between elections. The last election was in October 2013, so McNeil could wait as long as October 2018.
The norm for a majority government is to have an election in the fourth year. A government doesn't usually go into its fifth year unless it's almost certain it will lose.
Nova Scotia has two recent examples of a fifth-year election: the Progressive Conservatives under Donald Cameron in 1993 and the Liberals under Russell MacLellan in 1998.
Liberals still most popular
In both cases, the governments were in serious trouble — Cameron's Tories because of Buchanan-era scandals and the fallout from Westray, and MacLellan's Liberals because of the deep and lingering unpopularity of Savage-era reforms.
Both governments had changed premiers in mid-mandate.
The current government has had a rough patch recently with public-sector labour relations, but the McNeil Liberals are not remotely in the same territory as Cameron or MacLellan.
They are still the most popular by far of the three major parties.
Keep cards close
The choice of an election date is 100 per cent up to the premier. This is not a party, caucus or cabinet decision.
And premiers keep their cards very, very close.
Even when I was a cabinet minister, I had absolutely no idea when Premier Dexter was going to call an election.
In 2013, I remember getting about 36 hours' notice. I got a call on a Thursday evening saying the election would be called that Saturday morning.
Right up until I got the call, I believed it was possible the premier might wait until the spring of 2014.
Watch for the bus
McNeil has indicated in year-end interviews that he wants to introduce another budget. That would take us to early April.
It seems likely that the Liberals would want to pass their budget and wrap up the spring sitting of the legislature. That would take us to the Victoria Day long weekend.
After that, it's anyone's guess.
Personally, I believe the most likely timing of an election is summer, by which I mean the four-month window from June to September.
If the Liberals are worried about their declining popularity, a summer vote will depress turnout. Conventional wisdom is that lower turnout favours the government.
The most obvious sign of an impending election will be that the Liberals get the rest of their candidates nominated. The rhetoric will sharpen.
And the weird little thing I used to look for is the premier's election bus. When it's ready, an election call is imminent.
Wild card
The wild card, of course, is what happens with the teachers.
Lined up behind the teachers is the rest of the public sector workforce. They'll all get whatever deal the teachers get.
I also don't expect the Liberals to call back the House in special session to legislate a deal. The Liberals scorched themselves on Dec. 5 and they're not likely to put their hands near that stove again.
It's hard to see how the teachers' dispute gets resolved:
- The two sides are farther apart than ever.
- After two recommended deals were voted down, the NSTU executive is scared of its own membership.
- The premier says he won't budge on his government's "fiscal plan" and won't send it to arbitration.
The two sides are talking for public relations purposes, not because they have anything new to say to each other.
I don't anticipate a teachers' strike, nor do I anticipate a lockout. Either would be a huge strategic error.
Long-term work to rule?
Work-to-rule is likely to become the new normal.
Long-term work-to-rule favours the teachers. They can live with it for a long time.
The government, in contrast, can't go into an election with the teachers' dispute still simmering.
Something has to give.
When it does, watch for the premier's election bus to roll out of the garage shortly after.
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