Graham Steele: Byelections are a fight for your heart

Three provincial byelections, likely to be called any day now, have the full attention of Nova Scotia's political parties.

On one level, the byelections don't matter even a tiny bit. The winners will sink immediately into backbench or opposition anonymity. We'll still have the same government, with the same premier, pursuing the same policies.

On another level, though, a great deal is at stake for all three parties. The byelections will fuel the fight for political control of your heart.

Byelection not so rare

A "byelection" is any election other than a general election. It usually occurs when an MLA dies or resigns.

Byelections are now needed in Dartmouth South, Sydney–Whitney Pier, and Cape Breton Centre. The vacancies were created by, respectively, the death of Allan Rowe (Liberal), and the resignations of Gordie Gosse (NDP) and Frank Corbett (NDP).

In the past fifteen years, there have been eleven byelections, including my first election in Halifax Fairview in 2001. Eight vacancies were due to resignations, two to deaths, and one to a voided election in Cape Breton East in 2000.

Less at stake, lower energy

Having been through it myself, I know that the vibe of a byelection is quite different from a general election.

Everybody knows who the government will be the day after the byelection is over, so there is much less at stake.

There's also no provincial advertising, no leader's tour, and no daily press coverage, so there is less to engage the voters. That makes voter turnout a challenge, and puts a premium on good organization—what political insiders call "the ground game."

Compounding the problem is that these three byelections will be held in high summer. The earliest possible voting day is now June 30. Maybe that's not an accident. Conventional wisdom is that low voter turnout favours the government.

The timing of the byelections is entirely in the premier's control, and he's going to set a date that gives his candidates the best chance to win. If that means voting on the best beach day of the summer, he'll do it.

The government's pitch

So if there's less at stake in a byelection, what's the pitch?

A government always argues "it's better to have an MLA on the government side". There's scant evidence that this argument works: in the past 15 years, only three of the 11 byelections have elected a government MLA (Cape Breton North in 2001, Chester–St. Margaret's in 2005, and Antigonish in 2009).

The argument will carry no weight in Dartmouth South. Voters in metro simply don't need the provincial government for jobs, roads, or favours. If work needs to be done on Dartmouth General Hospital (for example), it's going to be done regardless of who gets elected in Dartmouth South, because the hospital serves neighbouring Liberal-held constituencies too.

The argument may be a little stronger outside metro. There used to be a joke that Cape Bretoners wished they could vote after everybody else, just to be sure they ended up on the right side. This time, they can.

The opposition's pitch

The competing pitch from the opposition parties is "send a message that you're not happy."

This "send a message" factor will be particularly relevant in Dartmouth South, which has been represented by all three major parties within the past 15 years.

When everything was going the Liberals' way in 2013, they won Dartmouth South by a little over 1000 votes. The possible messages are:

• If the Liberals win and hold their 2013 vote: approval.
• If the Liberals win but with a reduced margin: concerned approval.
• If the Liberals lose: disapproval, plus validation for whichever opposition party wins.

The message from the Cape Breton byelections will be harder to read. The Progressive Conservatives have been a non-factor in those two constituencies for many years, and that's not going to change this time around. With a couple of strong, long-serving NDP personalities stepping down, plus the Liberals running the same two candidates who almost won in 2013, the voters there have more than one reason to vote for the red team.

There are three byelections, but many possible stories about what the results signify. That's why the real fight after byelection voting day will be for your heart, and which story takes hold there.