Eastern Canada can expect a cool start to summer

After this winter’s wicked weather, Canadians across the country are looking forward to sunny skies and warm breezes — but they may be out of luck.

Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist with U.S.-based AccuWeather, says the cool weather across parts of Eastern and Central Canada this spring will continue into the summer. He says Western Canada is expected to have a warmer and drier summer compared to normal.

• Warm, dry summer forecast for B.C., western Alberta

“A persistent dip in the jet stream across Central and Eastern Canada will lead to an increase in spells of cooler air into the region, especially during June and July,” said Anderson in an online post.

The record extent of ice coverage this spring on the Great Lakes will carry over and have a cooling effect in those areas close to the lakes.

He says though Atlantic Canada and areas around the Great Lakes can expect a cool start to the summer, that should change to warmer and more humid conditions compared to normal during the second half of the season.

Though it is expected to warm up, the second half of the summer in Atlantic Canada is expected to be wetter. Anderson says moist air and heavier, tropical rainfall are in the forecast for the second half of the summer.

The Prairies and British Columbia can expect warmer weather this summer.

“There will be an increased threat for large wildfires in the far West later this summer due to the combination of warm, dry weather and the continuing problems with the [mountain pine beetle],” said Anderson.

Cautious prediction

"Seasonal forecasts are a very complex and touchy subject," adds CBC Nova Scotia meteorologist Kalin Mitchell.

"While climatological models can sometimes accurately capture the large scale weather patterns in the atmosphere, they have nowhere near the ability to capture finer scale weather systems that could have a big impact on temperatures."

For example, Mitchell says a steady southwest wind could make it feel warmer, skewing the seasonal forecast.

He says Environment Canada puts the probability of above normal temperatures this summer at about 40 to 50 per cent.

"In other words when the probability forecast of a warmer summer is only in the 40 to 50 per cent range, it actually comes to pass only about one out of every two times," he said.