Experts say PC promise to eliminate Halifax bridge tolls will worsen congestion
'I would expect traffic to be 10 to 20 per cent higher,' says tolling expert Deny Sullivan
The Progressive Conservatives have promised to remove the tolls on the two bridges that span Halifax harbour, but a tolling expert, a traffic engineer and a longtime head of the organization that oversees the bridges say the move will likely make congestion worse.
Deny Sullivan, an economist who conducts traffic and revenue projections for toll road investors worldwide, said the move would likely make traffic tie-ups worse because tolls generally reduce traffic volumes, while removing them has the opposite effect.
When he heard of the PC promise, Sullivan had an immediate reaction.
"I thought it was unfortunate," he said. "The first thought that came to mind for me was just that this is going to make the [traffic] problem worse."
Sullivan co-authored a report published this month that examined 76 toll projects in 16 countries. The report focused primarily on how imposing tolls drives down bridge and road traffic, but Sullivan noted a 27 per cent increase in volume when the British Columbia government took the tolls off the Port Mann Bridge in Surrey in 2017.
Houston's reasons
On Tuesday, PC Leader Tim Houston said removing the tolls would save Nova Scotians both time and money.
"We know that the cost of the toll itself is just one more financial expense in a world of many, many one-more financial expenses," he said. "But we also know that the time cost of the toll is a tax on your most precious asset, your time."
Asked Wednesday why lifting the tolls would ease congestion, Houston explained his reasoning.
"If you don't have to stop at a toll booth, it'll save you time," he said.
When asked about the research that went into the decision, Houston said he "relied on a number of experts who assured me that if you have to stop and are not moving forward, it's taking you longer."
Sullivan disagreed.
"Trying to push more trips through those bridges, even without the barriers, I would expect congestion to get worse," he said.
A traffic engineer weighs in
Peter Lougheed, an engineer who specializes in road safety, told CBC Radio's Information Morning Halifax host Portia Clark on Thursday that the toll plazas "basically manage the traffic" by slowing vehicles down before they begin to merge into the one of two available lanes on the bridge.
Removing the tolls could create a safety issue, he said.
"You're still only going to be able to get the same number of vehicles over the bridge. So you're not going to save a lot of time or congestion, but you're going to have a mess you're going to have to work with," said Lougheed.
He also said crossing without tolls could be more appealing to those who limited their use of the bridges because of the cost.
"If somebody lives on the Dartmouth side and normally only goes to Halifax to shop once a week, and hits three different locations, they may now go over the bridge three times a week," he said. "You're increasing the number of vehicles travelling over the bridge."
According to Lougheed, that could have a ripple effect across the entire road network.
What the bridge commission's former CEO says
Steven Snider spent 28 years with an office window overlooking the Macdonald Bridge toll plaza. Now retired, he was the CEO of the Halifax-Dartmouth Bridge Commission (now known as Halifax Harbour Bridges).
"The bridge commission is running about 82 per cent MacPass right now," said Snider in a telephone interview from New York. "Given my years of viewing the toll plaza from my office, I don't think it's going to make a big difference."
He said traffic backups generally happened on the approaches to the bridge, not at the toll plaza.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
