Scientists say Atlantic coastline becoming a breeding ground for hurricanes

A new study says that key hurricane-producing conditions are becoming increasingly favourable along the U.S. Atlantic coastline.

Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy studied hurricane activity data over the past four decades and the conditions that help develop them. They discovered the rates at which hurricanes intensify near the U.S. coast have significantly climbed since 1979. 

While the study focuses on the region near the U.S. Atlantic coastline, any storms that develop, intensify or even maintain their strength in those warmer waters can then track northward and into Atlantic Canada.

Storms like Dorian in 2019, Earl in 2010, Noel in 2007 and Gustav in 2002 are recent examples. They all tracked up the Eastern Seaboard through the area of the study and then had impacts here in Atlantic Canada.

So what changes in the environment caused the observed enhancement in Atlantic hurricane activity?

The study points to significant positive trends in "potential intensity," which they say is likely due to sea surface temperature warming over the northwestern Atlantic.

The researchers also noted the warmer sea surface temperatures are likely contributing to positive trends in the higher humidity being observed in the region.

Along with warmer sea surface temperatures and higher humidity, less wind shear to weaken the storms was also observed within the region of study.

Wind shear occurs when there is a change of wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere.

These factors mean the storms are entering "an increasingly favourable environment near the U.S. Atlantic coast just ahead of landfall."

Scientists say that based on observed data and model simulations, trends for the 86-year period of 2015-2100 indicate that the environment close to shore will continue to become more favourable.