Halifax retail expert tracks food costs and finds 'everything is going up'

A Halifax blogger who keeps tabs on the retail and restaurant industries says he's tracked food costs at major grocery chains over the past five years and documented some dramatic increases. 

Arthur Gaudreau, who runs Halifax ReTales, compared the cost of 29 products in October 2017 to the cost of the same products in October 2022. He looked at items such as chicken breast, bananas and chocolate milk at Sobeys, Superstore and Walmart.

According to Statistics Canada, the cost of groceries has risen over 10 per cent in the past year and the federal NDP has called for a probe into whether grocery stores have been taking advantage of inflation.

Loblaw — which owns Shoppers Drug Mart, Superstore and No Frills — saw its quarterly profits increase by 3.2 per cent, over the same quarter last year. While Empire, which owns Sobeys, reported a slight decline in profits over the most recent quarter.

Gaudreau spoke with CBC Radio's Maritime Noon about which Nova Scotia grocers saw the biggest increases. 

His interview with host Bob Murphy has been condensed and edited for clarity.

You can listen to the full interview here:

How did the grocery stores compare in 2017?

Typically, back in 2017 Walmart was the cheapest. Superstore wasn't far behind and Sobeys was significantly more expensive than the others by like six or seven per cent.

And then fast forward to today, what do you see now? 

Today Superstore and Sobeys are much more in line. Walmart is still the cheapest and I'm also now looking at No Frills — Superstore's partner — and they come in between Superstore and Walmart.

The Superstore basket from 2017 to 2022 increased by 45 per cent … I was surprised. I would have expected an increase just because, but I would have expected somewhere in the 20 per cent range, not 45.

What items in that basket of food saw the largest increases?

It was mixed, but you're not seeing as many sales on things like chicken, for example. One of the things I had on the list was a 2 litre chocolate milk. People used to have competitive sales on that — Sobeys never used to — but now everyone's in line with the same standard price across the board.

The dry goods are all up like 10 cents, 20 cents, or even as much as a dollar. So it's across the board. It's not like one thing is pushing it further than anything else. Everything. Everything is going up. 

I know some people look at the deals where if you buy more than one, you get it at a reduced price. Did you also factor that into your calculations? 

I did calculations as well as if they bought one item of the multi-price and it usually saves a few dollars on a basket. But of course, sometimes you have to buy four, sometimes you have to buy five, sometimes you only have to buy two. And Walmart, Superstore and No Frills all currently lean heavy into that … You can save money by buying multiple products at those stores. Sobeys does participate in that sometimes, but not nearly as [often] as the others do.

The dry goods are all up like 10 cents, 20 cents, or even as much as a dollar so it's across the board.- Arthur Gaudreau, Halifax ReTales

You compared 2017 to 2022, but you also looked at February 2022 to October 2022. What did you see just in that seven-month period?

That really shocked me. The interesting thing is that they all went up across the board, but Sobeys went up the least. Now the thing with that is Sobeys was the most expensive to begin with ... so Sobeys only went up around four per cent while the others all went up between nine and 10 per cent.

I think Sobeys has stayed relatively [stable] with their business model, but the other ones have started to increase their prices and are just basically seeing what the market will bear. They all want to stay a little bit ahead of the other one, but it's becoming more equal … They're not going for the big sales like they used to.

The federal NDP is calling for a parliamentary probe on the rising cost of food in this country to determine whether major grocery store chains are raking in excess profits. Do you think that your numbers show grocery stores are profiteering here? Would you go that far?

I wouldn't quite go that far. I don't think Sobeys is, as such, but they were always more expensive. But the others, I think, are realizing that they can get more. I think they're just sort of testing to see what happens. Also, they make excuses for why a price goes up, but if those market factors change, they rarely bring the price back down.

The major question is where do you shop?

I tend not to use the major [grocery store chains] much at all. I tend to use little shops like over in Dartmouth, Daves and Gateway. That's where I get a lot of my meat and produce. I shop at 2 Boys, ethnic grocery stores and when I do go to big grocery stores, I tend to go to No Frills or Walmart because it's the same goods as somewhere else, why wouldn't I go get it cheaper? 

So your advice if you want to save money?

Go everywhere. Different places concentrate on different things. I saw variation in something like a standard bottle of Hellmann's mayonnaise of $4. That's pretty significant.

But then some fresher goods are cheaper elsewhere. It's really weird ... That being said, some things I looked at don't factor in things like house brands so you may find a cheaper version with a Compliments or PC or a Great Value or whatever. My system is not perfect but it does give a snapshot of where it was and where we are.