5 ridings to watch in the Yukon election

Monday's Yukon election is bound to be interesting, if only because the outcome is still too difficult to predict — there's been no clear front-runner through the campaign, nor has there been any central issue dominating debate and stirring passions.

In short, anything could happen — from Sandy Silver's Liberals winning re-election for the first time in that party's history, to Currie Dixon returning the Yukon Party to government after a few years on the sidelines, to Kate White vaulting the NDP from third-party status to government.

There are also bound to be some surprises in individual ridings, where incumbents could be ousted and party loyalties shift.

Here are five ridings we think look especially interesting.  

Mayo-Tatchun

Mayo-Tatchun, a sprawling rural riding that includes the communities of Mayo, Pelly Crossing, Carmacks, Stewart Crossing and Keno City, is one of just two electoral districts without an incumbent candidate on the ballot.

The riding was a longtime NDP stronghold, with former MLA Eric Fairclough holding the seat for more than a decade under the NDP banner, before he joined the Liberals in 2006. Fairclough won re-election in 2006 as a Liberal, but in 2011 the riding swung back to the NDP when Jim Tredger unseated Fairclough.

Then in 2016, Liberal Don Hutton defeated Tredger by a healthy margin, becoming part of the "red wave" that swept the Liberals to a majority government.

Five years later, on the eve of an election call, Hutton was disenchanted with his party and announced he was leaving the Liberal caucus to sit as an independent. He decided not to run again, but threw his support behind Kate White's NDP.

Will voters in the riding follow Hutton's lead, and deliver the riding back to the NDP with candidate Patty Wallingham? Or will Liberal Jeremy Harper or the Yukon Party's Peter Grundmanis pick up some of Hutton's 2016 voters?

Mountainview

The 2016 election saw several close races across the territory, with some candidates winning their seats by just a handful of votes. Liberal Jeanie McLean in Mountainview was one of those candidates.

McLean's victory that year was a major coup for her party — the political rookie managed to unseat a premier (Yukon Party Leader Darrell Pasloski), and fend off a strong NDP challenge by just seven votes.

Now McLean is up for re-election and this time she's not a rookie but rather an experienced cabinet minister who had a tricky pandemic-era portfolio — tourism. 

She's up against some political newcomers this year — the NDP's Michelle Friesen, the Yukon Party's Ray Sydney, and this election's only independent candidate, Coach Jan Prieditis.

Vuntut Gwitchin

Vuntut Gwitchin is Yukon's northernmost and least-populated riding, with fewer than 200 ballots cast in any territorial  election. It's also been represented by MLAs from all three major parties over the years.

It's also one of two ridings this year with just two names on the ballot, both women — Liberal Pauline Frost, and the NDP's Annie Blake. It's the only riding with no Yukon Party candidate.

Frost won the seat in 2016 by just seven votes, unseating the late Darius Elias, a former Liberal who was seeking re-election for the first time under the Yukon Party banner. The NDP candidate barely registered in that race, earning just three votes.

Frost was a newcomer in 2016 but Silver handed her several heavy cabinet portfolios, including Health and Social Services and Environment. Is she safe this time around, and where will those former Yukon Party supporters in the riding now park their votes?

Watson Lake

Watson Lake is the other riding with only two names on the ballot this year, and as in Vuntut Gwitchin, both are women.

The riding has long been a Yukon Party stronghold, with Patti McLeod representing it since 2011 and now seeking her third term as MLA. Before McLeod, it was former premier Dennis Fentie's home riding for 15 years.

But Watson Lake has also had a solid base of NDP support over the years (Fentie was first elected as a New Democrat in 1996 and later joined the Yukon Party), with NDP candidates finishing second to McLeod in 2016 and 2011.

This time, there's no NDP candidate in Watson Lake. Last month, Amy Labonte promptly dropped out of the race after a CBC News report revealed some of her offensive tweets. It was too late for the NDP to find a replacement; the nomination deadline had passed.

Where will that traditional NDP support go — to McLeod, or to Liberal challenger Amanda Brown?

Whitehorse Centre  

Whitehorse Centre likely wouldn't be as exciting a race if Liz Hanson were still in the game. The former NDP leader comfortably held the seat since 2010, but this time she's passed the baton to a newcomer, Emily Tredger.

The downtown riding has been a bastion of NDP support for decades, even when the party's fortunes flagged elsewhere in the territory. Before Hanson, it was held by another former NDP leader, the late Todd Hardy.

But with Hanson retired, the Liberals see a potential gain with their own high-profile candidate — Dan Curtis, Whitehorse's longtime mayor.

The Liberals also had a good showing in the riding in 2016. Candidate Tamara Goeppel won 38.9 per cent of the vote compared to Hanson's 43.8 per cent. It was Hanson's narrowest-ever win.

And don't count out the Yukon Party's Eileen Melnychuk as a factor. In 2011, the Yukon Party candidate finished ahead of the Liberal in Whitehorse Centre, though both were far behind Hanson.