Looking ahead to summer in the North: warm temperatures and high fire danger
Warm temperatures are leading to a faster ice melt
Wow, where did May go? We are now at the end of what people would call the "unofficial" start to summer, the May long weekend. And I'm right there with you — constantly dreaming of summer.
And even though summer activities and adventures are a little uncertain right now because we still don't know when exactly what we're going to be able to do, we can still look at some predictions of what we can expect in the weather.
There are three main things to think about when it comes to summer weather — temperatures, fires and ice breakup.
Temperatures look to be mostly warm
Let's just cut to the chase, temperatures are what you're really looking for here.
Our first clue as to what to expect over the next couple of weeks is in the upper atmosphere. Right now, the polar vortex is hanging out over the top of the Kivalliq in Nunavut and bringing in cold air. This is expected to move east over the next few days.
Through the next 10 days, there will be a shift, and warmer temperatures will pull in. It is really important to note that the High Arctic is already seeing above seasonal temperatures and this remains the case.
As we head through the next few months, we are likely to see warmer temperatures than normal, basically across the board. So if you're looking for warmth, that is in store for the summer. Though we will see normal amounts of precipitation.
Arctic ice melt is already ahead of schedule
And that brings me to my next point. Ice! Now of course, as we head through spring we are seeing spring breakup.
Warm temperatures and more sun are in store. Again, highs through the polar regions are leading to faster ice melt and this will just enhance the ice-albedo feedback loop, therefore, amplifying warming. This is because more open water leads to more melting, which leads to more open water and therefore, more melting. It goes around in a loop and leads to warmer temperatures.
Fire risks this summer
Now, lastly, I'm going to put my fire hat on for a moment.
When it comes to fire season, we are already in it. Especially if we look to the west into Yukon and Alaska.
Fires are already burning. This was exacerbated because last week we saw above normal temperatures. And temperatures are one of those things we look at when predicting fire severity, along with precipitation, wind and relative humidity.
In really simple terms, dryer, hotter conditions will mean higher fire risks, and when we put that all together, we get a riskier fire season this year.
To sum it all up, we can expect a warmer summer with a higher fire risk. We also can expect ice to melt faster through the rest of the year.
