Environment Canada predicts mild fall and winter in northwestern Canada

Yukon, the Northwest Territories and western Nunavut could see a warmer than normal winter this year, according to Environment Canada's senior climatologist.

David Phillips says winter definitely isn't cancelled, but the territories should experience fewer days below –30 C this winter.

Environment Canada's weather models are also predicting a milder fall.

"We are seeing conditions on average look like they're going to be warmer than normal," says Phillips.

He compared temperatures in the Northwest Territories this year with the last 68 years of data and says the territory is coming off its twelfth warmest summer on record. The N.W.T. was about 1 C warmer than average this summer and also saw quite a bit more precipitation than usual.

'Super' El Nino makes forecast hard to predict

But Phillips says providing a seasonal forecast for northern Canada is difficult this year, given an impending "super" El Nino event.

An El Nino is a temporary change of climate that happens every few years, when winds shift in the Pacific Ocean along the equator, warming the water more than usual. El Nino events trigger changing weather patterns globally.

"When you look over the last seven super El Ninos, you get a mixed bag," says Phillips. "You find some winters that are colder than normal, and some that are warmer than normal."

"It's almost like the dice are loaded to give westerners a milder winter, but not northwesterners."

Phillips says a warmer winter could bring more precipitation to northern Canada, but climatologists are still debating how the super El Nino will interact with shrinking Arctic sea ice. It's been 18 years since the last super El Nino and much of the thicker, multi-year ice has melted.