We're in a population time bomb, and it's been exploding in slow motion
For every 4 babies born 60 years ago, there's just 1 today
Around 2001, something remarkable started popping up on the sides of the roads in St. John's: help wanted signs. Those portable electronic signs — which usually just have the company's name or the details of the current sale — were lined up, each begging for someone to apply within.
There were sheets of paper saying the same thing, taped to the front doors of local convenience stores. Some larger employers rented halls to meet prospective employees.
In a job market where people in an early decade notably once lined up for the chance to apply for a job at a store in the Avalon Mall, that was quite the change.
That skill shortage lasted for a number of years. In a nutshell, demand outstripped supply. That is, the service sector was booming, and employers were scrambling to find people to handle the demand from consumers.
On the supply side, it boiled down to this: there just weren't enough kids to go around.
In 2005, here at CBC Radio we did a series called the Teen Age, which looked at a variety of issues. I took on a segment called Teenage Wasteland, which looked at the demographic crunch that was playing out in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Two massive things came together in the prior decades. No. 1: a baby boom like no other, with one of the highest fertility rates in the western world, with a steady drop in that rate starting in the mid-1960s — a time of social change and easier access to birth control. No. 2: the collapse of the cod fishery in the early 1990s, which triggered a whopping population loss in Newfoundland and Labrador in the years that followed.
The young adults who moved away put down roots somewhere else; many no doubt had families of their own, just not here.
What we were seeing at the time was a steep loss in the number of youth. First, families were getting a lot smaller. Second, there were fewer families, period.
The young adults who moved away put down roots somewhere else; many no doubt had families of their own, just not here.
What we were seeing then, in the mid-2000s, was one hell of a weird job market. There were 63,744 teens ages 15 through 19 in 1981, when that demographic hit its peak. Disclosure: I'm in that group, and I knew the other side, when there were far too many of us looking for too few jobs, even at minimum wage in fast food places.
By 2005, there were 34,910 kids in that demo.
And we knew it was going to get worse.
Another low point for the number of births
And … it did.
Last week, my colleague Terry Roberts brought an update: Newfoundland and Labrador had the lowest number of births since it started recorded them decades ago.
- Last year was the worst year in history for births in Newfoundland and Labrador
- 'There is a stark reality' to N.L.'s staggering population challenges, Al Hawkins says
There were 4,013 births logged in 2018.
In 1955, at the start of a decade-long crest, there were 16,016.
You can mouse around the interactive chart below to see just how dramatically things changed from year to year. As you pause on each year, you'll see the number of births.
Quite the picture.
You don't see as many help wanted signs on the side of the road these days, nor handwritten boards posted in shop windows. In fact, I've noticed only a handful after a few weeks of actually looking.
The economy over the last few years is definitely much colder than the vroom-vroom years of the 2000s, when both oil production and prices were on the rise, and there was a better vibe in the construction and other industries.
We're still in a demographic pinch. There are fewer teenagers than before, and even smaller cohorts of children coming up behind them.
There are other variables, of course. Some expat families have moved back. The immigration picture has changed. I can't count the number of people I personally know who've moved here from other provinces.
In other words, demographics are always churning.
And, in a sense, the population picture may be better than the gloomier projections of years ago.
In 2005, the worst-case scenario laid out by the Newfoundland and Labrador government projected that there would be 23,321 teens (15-19) by the year 2019.
Here we are in 2019, and we'll see where that number winds up. For what it's worth, the last census — taken in 2016, or three years ago — had that 15-19 set at 27,255.
Way down, but not out.
Quote of the week
"We don't even have one can of soup now that we could distribute."
That's Eg Walters, the general manager of the Community Food Sharing Association, reacting in the immediate aftermath to the smoke and water damage that ruined a warehouse full of food. Public reaction, though, was swift and generous; by Thursday, the non-profit hub for several dozen food banks had an offer of space and a surge in individual donations.
For your weekend reading
Busy week, eh? Same here. You may have missed some of these features from the last seven days.
The woman who sanded her own street brings a new meaning to DIY.
Independent cannabis vendors fear they're being weeded out.
File under: The wheels of government grind slowly dep't.
Even if you're too young to remember All Around the Circle, you should know how legendary accordion player Ray Walsh changed the province's music scene.
How low can you go? This couple's trash is now down to a Sobeys bag a week.
Today's music ain't got the same soul; they love that old-time rock and roll.
Carolyn Stokes's love affair with bees continues to impress. Seriously, check out what she's learned since her house was infested.
It's an international spat about sculpture! And moose!
About 1,500 people in the province use ham radios.
If you have a hundred grand to spare, you can see the Titanic up close.
Santa gave this seven-year-old a sewing machine, and look what she's done with it.
Debbie Maloney had an aneurysm AND a stroke while still in her 30s. Years later, she is still recovering, but has found her voice. (And check out the video below for a This Is My Story feature by my colleagues Jen White and Sherry Vivian.)
Haggie by the baggie? MitchelS'mores?
Good boy
A Newfoundland dog AND Quidi Vidi. How can you not love this one?
Alick Tsui, one of our favourite photographers, captured this wonderful winter image after a fresh snowfall in Quidi Vidi Village. (Evidently before a round of rain and melt.)
You can see our latest gallery here. It's a delight, by the way, to get photos from across the province. We use them in different places, from Ashley Brauweiler's weather spots on Here & Now to our gallery to our social media channels, including Instagram.
How to submit? Please email them to nlphotos@cbc.ca with your full name and information for us to write a caption.
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