And they're off: Rudy Riedlsperger's 2021 Tely 10 predictions
After a 2-year hiatus, the race is back
Finally. After a more than two-year hiatus, the Tely 10 is back.
On Sunday, more than 2,500 participants will run from Paradise, through Mount Pearl, and into St. John's where the finish line waits in Bannerman Park.
Usually, of course, this most prestigious road race of Newfoundland and Labrador is held in July, but there have been previous editions any time between May and October. The 10-miler will mostly be a local affair this year, and I expect an incredibly close race that should be fun to watch.
Runners from the local scene have been exciting to follow in the last few years, and the Tely 10 brings them all together (well, most of them!). Let's have a close look at some of the top contenders to cross the finish line first:
The women's category
8. Janelle Simmons
Names to watch out for spots 10 to eight include Shantel Buttress, Katrina-Lynn Picco and Sheri-Lynn Reid. However, I believe Janelle Simmons will have a slight edge, putting her in eighth position this year.
The Royal Newfoundland Constabulary constable is on her way back from injury and ran very well in the Cape to Cabot 20K race two weeks ago, finishing second.
Simmons has won many races locally and internationally, including the World Police and Fire Games in Fairfax, Va., where she won the half-marathon in a blazing fast time. That was a few seasons ago, but many runners get better with age; Simmons is definitely one of them. Simmons's personal best at the Tely is 1:04:17.
7. Susan Hayward
Susan Hayward is always somebody to watch out for.
Like many names on this list, Hayward is a member of the the Athletics North East Running Club. The group usually trains early in the morning, rain or shine, summer or winter. While COVID-19 put the brakes on the club for a little while last year, the group is back together with a newfound appreciation for the sport.
Hayward put in the training this year to go for a personal best. Known to pace herself really well, she won't go out too fast, and don't expect her to fade toward the end of the race. With her experience it is possible to see her even further up in the results. Hayward's PB at the Tely is 1:04:07.
6. Alison Walsh
Alison Walsh has been a staple in the local running scene for many years. While she took some time off after the birth of her second child, she recently got back into training and I expect that she will be a contender for a top-six finish at least.
If she can hang on to a fast group we may even see her further ahead.
Walsh is a bit of a wild card, as she has not run any races yet this year, but take a look at any race results in the province over the last 10 years and you will see that it would be a big mistake to count her out.
Walsh's fastest Tely 10 time is 1:01:37.
5. Stephanie Nevin
Over the last two years Stephanie Nevin has become one of the best triathletes in the province, immensely improving her running game in the process.
She just had an amazing performance at the 2021 Cape to Cabot, taking the win in a personal best of 1:28:54 on the gruelling 20K course.
Equally as impressive was her performance at the Ironman 70.3 in Calgary this past July. Her time of 4:55:26 was good for fourth place in an incredibly strong field.
Expect a huge Tely 10 PB from Steph this year. With Walsh and Hayward never running slow, and Nevin being on an upward trajectory, it's impossible to say who will have the edge between the three of them, but I am excited to find out.
Nevin has a Tely 10 PB of 1:07:41.
4. Jennifer Barron
"My goal for the Tely is a sub-60. That's one of those barriers I haven't been able to break yet," Jennifer Barron said when asked about her goal for this year's race.
While there is always a bit of luck involved with respect to weather, Barron has all the tools in her toolkit to finish the job this year.
Initially training solo for long stretches during the pandemic, she eventually connected with Kate Bazeley and Jade Roberts. The three of them have been crushing it ever since.
An incredible 17-minute 5K in September on a course quite similar to the Tely's has the running community excited to see what's to come for Barron.
Her Tely 10 PB is 1:01:05.
3. Jennifer Murrin
Jennifer Murrin has gotten faster and faster, season after season in the last few years.
The winner of the 2017 and 2018 editions of the Tely 10 has an amazing PB of 54:55, the second fastest time ever run on the course.
Dealing with injury in the first half of 2020, she has been able to train consistently in the last 12 months.
Weather may prove to be a small handicap for the St. John's runner, who prefers warm racing conditions, but if things go well, she may even collect her third Tely 10 title this year.
Murrin's Tely 10 personal best is 54:55.
2. Anne Johnston
In 2019, Anne Johnston shocked the running world by not only winning the Tely 10 but by taking the course record from Kate Bazeley in a time of 54:25.
Johnston is a former Sea-Hawks cross-country varsity star and coach, and has been running well for years.
Her recent success should not come as a surprise, and it looks like she was able to maintain her fitness during the COVID-19-related racing hiatus; she recently competed in the Canadian 10K championships in Toronto, finishing in the Top 10 in an incredibly strong and even-paced performance of 34:19!
The win is within reach, but it will be a hard battle over 16 kilometres down Topsail Road.
1. Kate Bazeley
When Kate Bazeley took the long-standing course record from Nicola Will in 2016, everyone thought her record would stand for a long, long time.
Anne Johnston had different plans, however, setting the stage for an epic matchup between the two standouts.
Johnston and Bazeley have each won the race four times so far. Both know what it is like to hold the course record. And both are in tip-top shape for Sunday.
When it comes to workouts and mileage, Bazeley has a slight advantage. The only small question mark is how well she has recovered from running the Chicago Marathon only three weeks ago. Competing in the elite field, Bazeley finished in an incredible 16th spot, garnering praise from the premier and the lieutenant-governor of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Kate's Tely 10 PB is 55:34.
Next, the men's field.
8. Daniel Conway
The men's top 10 is incredibly difficult to predict this year. Watch for Ed Durnford, Fraser Clift, Jeff MacDonald, Sheldon Marsh and Chris Holden to have a shot at cracking the top 10.
With his recent performances and overall progression, however, Daniel Conway will be the favourite for eighth spot this year. Conway picked up a rigorous training regimen when joining the Memorial University Sea-Hawks while obtaining his degree. Since then, he has become a serious contender for a "most improved" award.
Conway ran strong in the Paradise 5K and Turkey T 10K this fall, then sat out the Cape to Cabot to rest and focus on the Tely.
Eighth place might be a conservative prediction for Conway this year. Watch out for a big PB. His fastest time at the Tely is 59:59.
7. Mark Croft
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, Mark Croft set out to run at least five kilometres every day to stay in shape. He kept up his running streak for an incredible 139 days before the pandemic blues set in and he shifted gears a bit.
All that running is paying off, however, as Mark is having the best running season of his life so far. He went sub-35 minutes at the Turkey T 10K race in early October, on a course that is almost a carbon copy of the Tely 10 route.
With a time like that he can expect to run in the 55- to 57-minute range at the Tely, where his PB is 62:37.
I will even go so far as to say that on a great day, Croft may crack the top five.
6. Martin Njenga
Martin Njenga turned heads at the Cape to Cabot this year with his third-place finish.
What was especially interesting was Njenga's race strategy: setting out slowly, almost at jogging pace, he picked it up around the halfway mark, effortlessly reeling in runner after runner. When asked about it, Njenga said an ankle injury forced him to start conservatively.
With the Tely 10 in mind he did not want to agitate the injury further but once he realized he was fine to run, he picked up the pace.
The Kenyan has not run the Tely before, but should his ankle hold up I expect him to challenge the top five this year.
5. Dan MacDonald
One reason I know Dan MacDonald may wind up in the top five this year is because he is signed up for the race. When MacDonald is racing, he is fast. Period.
The high-mileage runner from St. John's has recently incorporated some cross-training into his regimen (mostly biking), but his running workouts indicate that he hasn't lost a beat when it comes to competitiveness.
MacDonald doesn't have many races under his belt this year, but his experience will make up for that.
MacDonald's best time at the Tely 10 is 54:15. On a good day he may be able to bring that time down a bit.
4. Zach Putt
Zach Putt had a fantastic Cape to Cabot race, finishing second in cool and windy conditions. While he proved that he is in great shape, it remains to be seen if he can recover quickly enough to race well in the Tely.
Putt looks at the positives: "I think doing the Cape to Cabot only helps you get an appreciation for how flat the Tely is," he said, adding that his body recovered well from the hilly course.
The RNC constable is a former Memorial University Sea-Hawk and therefore used to an intense racing schedule.
I have him in fourth spot, but if he makes the podium nobody would be surprised.
Putt's Tely 10 PB is 56:09.
3. Mark Greene
Mark Greene is not running quite as much as some other people on the list, but you wouldn't know it by looking at his race time and results. And if you see the St. John's teacher out on the grand concourse you'll probably be impressed by his speed, even on his easy running days.
Greene had a good running season thus far: he came third in the Turkey 10 on a fast course, and he had some good workout sessions since.
During the summer Greene started to incorporate weight training and high intensity intervals into his regimen, which seems to have served him exceptionally well.
Greene's Tely 10 PB is 53:16.
2. Peter Bazeley
Peter Bazeley is one of the most consistent and versatile runners of the province. A staple in the top 10 at the Tely, this year may be his time to shine. While realistically a win might be slightly out of reach, spots two to 10 are pretty open this year.
Not prone to injuries, the St. John's athlete is running well year in and year out, winning races from 5K to ultra-distance marathons.
Bazeley made the best out of the pandemic road race hiatus by running high mileage, also incorporating trail runs into his regimen.
He ran exceptionally well at the Joy Run 50K in Corner Brook this past July, and clocked a fast 10K time at the Paradise Running Club 10K road race in September. The only person to beat him, then, was his wife, Kate Bazeley.
Peter Bazeley's PB is 54:30.
1. Colin Fewer
Nobody has won more Tely 10s in the rich history of the race, and it is quite possible that nobody ever will.
Once again, Colin Fewer is the clear favourite. Unless somebody comes out of the woodwork, I don't see any challengers on the horizon.
Over any distance, Fewer's race results show no signs of him slowing down. On the contrary, it is quite possible that he still has some PBs in him over the next several years.
While Paul McCloy's course record of 47:07 from 1985 seems untouchable, if conditions are cool and calm, watch for Fewer to breaking the 50-minute barrier.
Fewer has won every race he entered so far this year, and Sunday won't be an exception.
Fewer's Tely 10 PB is 49:41.
Bits and Bobs
Three fast names notably absent are Jade Roberts, Alex Pittman and Levi Moulton. The up and comers would be top five material if they were not running with the Memorial Sea-Hawks cross-country Team in Moncton on the same weekend. Watch out for them at the Tely 10 next year.
It doesn't happen often that both the female and male provincial marathon record holders go at it at the Tely 10, but it's happening this year!
Kate Bazely ran 2:36:35 at the Toronto Waterfront Marathon in 2019, while Chris Holden clocked 2:24:23 in Chicago in 2002. Chris created some buzz by signing up for this race. He has won the Tely 10 twice, never running slower than 52 minutes. However, his last victory was in 2004. While many runners get better with age (Colin Fewer, anyone?), seeing him in the Top 10 this year would be nothing short of a miracle. However, watch out for some age group records to crumble.
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