From 3 to 30: Here's a recipe for NDP success in 2023
The New Democrats can capitalize on May's surprise results — but the changes are fundamental
The New Democrats made a surprise showing in May's general election. If they make some strategic changes, they could actually win the next one.
The NDP were the big surprise in last month's Newfoundland and Labrador election — winning three seats when many pundits (myself included) felt it was possible that the party could get wiped out.
Consider their circumstances leading into the election.
Their former leader, Gerry Rogers, announced months before the election that she would be stepping down.
Alison Coffin stepped forward (again) to run for leader and this time was acclaimed.
People are clearly tired of the red/blue cycle and if the NDP can bring a fresh new approach to politics they will benefit substantially.
The party fielded candidates in only 14 of 40 districts, the lowest they had run in almost five decades.
Finally, they were anticipated to be truly competitive in only two races: St. John's East-Quidi Vidi and St. John's Centre.
Nobody expected Jordan Brown's insurgent campaign in Labrador West to perform as well as it did. When the dust settled, the NDP were sitting on three seats and — pending the outcome of a judicial recount in Labrador West later this month — is now poised to be an influential voice in a new minority Liberal government.
Wow.
So here we are with the new MHAs set to be sworn in soon.
Premier Dwight Ball has said the right things when it came to being collaborative and reasonable with the minority government.
PC Leader Ches Crosbie is now saying the right things after a fiery election night speech where he suggested he would try to topple the government as soon as possible.
Alison Coffin stood apart from them by suggesting that the NDP would work to support a minority government because nobody wants another election and the voters have sent a message to all parties to work together.
So how can Coffin and the NDP build on their unexpected success? Is it possible for them to establish themselves as the favourite in 2023 (or sooner)?
I believe it is, but they have some work to do.
Step 1: Maintain the minority government
This one is the most important right now. The NDP needs to be seen as a relevant force in governing the province, and being a power broker in a minority government puts the party in a position of influence that they haven't had in recent memory.
The biggest knock against the NDP in N.L. politics is that they're not taken seriously. If they want voters to consider them as a potential choice to govern, then they need this minority government to stay as close to the full term as possible.
Step 2: (Re)build the party
This one is the least glamorous part. They have to build the party, district by district, across the province. They have a recipe for success in urban areas based on their success in St. John's, but they need to replicate that message in other communities.
Their success in Labrador West implies that they have a base of support in Labrador that needs to be nurtured, and fast. I'm not sure where you buy Miracle-Gro for electoral districts, but they need to get some ASAP.
The NDP's reputation has suffered from the perception of so many of their candidates being "fill-ins" — that is, people who believe in the party but really have no organization and no reasonable expectation of victory. This needs to change.
In addition to building out the 40 district associations across the province, the NDP needs to renew their provincial party leadership with new voices. The party will never lack for social progressives as it's been their natural home for decades, but they need to find an economic position that appeals to more than union diehards.
A broad mix of people from different backgrounds can give credence to the impression that this is a new NDP, one with a credible shot at governing the province.
Step 3: Be different
This one should be easy enough for the NDP. They need to look and act like a new option that does politics in a different way. People are clearly tired of the red/blue cycle and if the NDP can bring a fresh new approach to politics they will benefit substantially.
When the PCs and Liberals are sniping at each other, the New Democrats should try to be the adults in the room. If they can propose reasonable solutions, resist the temptation to get down in the dirt, and above all strike a more positive and collaborative tone than the other parties, they will gain ground.
Step 4: Build a bigger tent
This part is going to be tough because it involves the NDP distancing themselves from some vocal parts of their party. The New Democrats have to lay the foundation for a larger percentage of people to consider voting for them. This can't be done if the party continues to allow left-leaning public figures to appear to speak for the party. The NDP is clearly the voice of social progressives in N.L., but the party needs to be welcoming to new people.
Quite often in the history of the New Democratic Party, and especially recently, the implication is sometimes drawn that if you don't believe in the entirety of their ideology then you're some kind of moral degenerate.
The perceived moral superiority of that part of the NDP will push away many moderate voters who aren't interested in being lectured to. If the party wants a chance to lead this province they have to build a party that allows moderate/centrists to feel like they're welcome. If the party chooses to try to see who is the "most woke," then they'll remain on the fringe, looking in at the levers of power.
Step 5: Get the money out of politics
One of the best things the NDP could try for in a minority government would be to push for a dramatic overhaul of campaign finance laws and how elections are paid for.
A shift to a publicly funded election model would help the NDP break the cycle of red/blue that has pushed our province to the brink of ruin. Moving to a publicly funded model will help the party gain ground on their well-funded competitors.
While they're at it — why not try to find some way to get us out of first — past the post election system? It feels like a long shot, but if they can get some traction here in exchange for supporting a few Liberal budgets then they'll change the province forever.
The NDP have a tremendous opportunity to become the government-in-waiting.
It will be exciting to see how they take advantage of it.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
