Promises, promises: Where will the money come for these last-minute pledges?
At this stage, big spending announcements are nothing more than theatre
The most important election in the history of our province draws to a close in a few short days and it is plain to see that the narrative of this campaign has shifted during its short life.
It started out as a foregone conclusion: the incumbent Liberals under Dwight Ball were going to sail to a second term.
The NDP had only 14 candidates. The PCs were suffocating under the legacy of Muskrat Falls.
It was all over but the counting. Or was it?
Last week, a series of polls came out that showed the race was anything but over. Abacus Data put the race at 33 per cent PC, 29 per cent Liberal, 12 per cent NDP, four per cent other. About 21 per cent were undecided.
You could sense it on the campaign trail as each of the campaigns started to up the ante in trying to appeal to voters in what was now a neck-and-neck sprint to the finish line this Thursday.
Big announcements started to pop up at various campaign stops. But can we read between the lines on these grand promises to see what they reveal about each campaign?
A wish list that will never be tested
The NDP have announced a swath of spending promises in their platform, which is a bit confusing because with only 14 candidates, the party has no chance of forming government. In addition to increasing health-care spending, the NDP pledged to maintain the post-secondary tuition freeze while also lowering tuition fees over time.
Where does the money come from? The NDP know they aren't going to form government so most of their policy platform is a wish list that will never be tested by actual governance.
The PCs have their own group of spending announcements, but they really went for it in Stephenville-Port au Port, where candidate Tony Wakeham committed to rebuilding the Bay St. George medical clinic.
Once again we have to ask: where does the money come from? The PCs clearly believe they can flip that seat and an aggressive announcement like that is something we should be skeptical of.
The Liberals have also been active on the big promises front, with St. John's East-Quidi Vidi Liberal candidate George Murphy announcing that the Liberals will increase the ArtsNL grant to $5 million if they are elected.
Ball announced that 24-hour emergency room service in Botwood would be reinstated, despite a Department of Health analysis concluding that it was an unnecessary service.
Why wasn't this in the budget? If the money has been allocated, it should be there as a line item.
The timing of both announcements give us cause to read between the lines. The Liberals must believe that St. John's East-Quidi Vidi is an opportunity to turn an NDP seat Liberal, which is critical for them in such a tight election.
In Exploits, the announcement may reveal that the Liberals are nervous about whether Jerry Dean is going to be re-elected as he faces a tough battle with PC candidate Pleaman Forsey.
What is obvious to most of us is that all the parties are feeling the heat. The Liberals are battling to avoid becoming the first one-term government in the history of our province, while the PCs would be happy to help the Liberals make history.
The NDP are fighting for a handful of seats, with serious challenges in convincing voters that their votes will matter. Leader Alison Coffin did not help their case by suggesting people could spoil their ballots in the 26 districts without an NDP candidate.
Nothing more than theatre
At this late stage in the campaign, we should view any major announcement as nothing more than theatre.
It's an act meant to appeal to certain voters. Strong campaigns that are feeling confident will spend the last week repeating their core messages to voters in key districts.
A child can look at their parents with a cookie in their hand and swear that they didn't take it. A politician making a promise in the last week of a campaign is the same thing.
If a campaign seems to be making things up as they go, then it suggests that they are nervous and desperate. These impressions mean a lot to voters as people love to vote for the "winners," and if momentum begins to be seen for or against one side, we can see a close race turn into a blowout.
In the next few days pay attention to where Ball and PC Leader Ches Crosbie spend their time.
If they are visiting seats that their party already holds it may suggest that they feel vulnerable in those districts.
Listen to a recent episode of CrossTalk, in which Terry Hussey was a guest:
There are 20 or so seats in this election where the outcome is assured. It is the other ones where the race will be decided and those are the districts where everyone will be focused in the next few days.
Unfortunately, the closer the race gets the more desperate the parties may become.
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Magical announcements of unlimited funding coming from the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow should be seen for what they are: a really bad bedtime story being told to an electorate who lie awake at night worrying about the future.
A child can look at their parents while holding a cookie and swear that they didn't take it. A politician making a promise in the last week of a campaign is the same thing.
The kid with the cookie is cute.
The desperate politician is frightening.
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