Online 'risk maps' offer early warning signs of climate change's effects on coastal communities

Roads, beaches, historic sites, and other coastal features around Newfoundland and Labrador are highly vulnerable to sea level rise and annual flooding by the end of this decade, should climate change continue unchecked — and a new online tool hopes to provide early warnings to the most vulnerable areas.

The locations most at risk are mapped out at Climate Central, using the latest data from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Among the tools and resources offered by the New Jersey-based non-profit organization of scientists and communicators, the Coastal Risk map offers the clearest forecast for the province's shoreline.

Most of the province is safe from rising waters, according to Peter Girard, Climate Central's vice-president of external communications.

"The land rises relatively quickly as it climbs up from the beaches and flats," said Girard, surveying the map from his home in New Jersey. "You don't see a huge amount of risk when you look at it from that angle.

"But when you zoom in, it's a different picture for some areas."

Slow and steady encroachment

Rather than the destruction wrought by an event like post-tropical storm Fiona in Port aux Basques in 2022, some areas are looking at a slow and steady encroachment by the North Atlantic. 

Locations in the "red zone" — those likely facing forced retreat or adaptation due to rising seas and annual flooding — include the Outer Battery in St. John's, Riverside Drive in Corner Brook, and parts of the Colony of Avalon site in Ferryland.

"That land is lower than the projected height of the water," said Girard. "It's at flood risk. And I'm looking at annual flood risk, a storm expected roughly once a year. I can see where it is expected to reach inland beyond some of the roads that ring the shoreline."

The map, he added, like the other tools at Climate Central, is designed for use by anyone.

"It's powered by Google, So if you know Google Maps you can use our maps. Search any location, zoom in, and pan around."

Areas at risk can be tracked by decade, from 2030 to 2100. Results can be adjusted to account for how aggressively the world might respond to climate change. Unchecked pollution until 2100 can be compared with a future that includes modest or deep cuts to global carbon emissions.

There's also a "Luck" slider. Its default setting is in the middle. Drag the button left for the most optimistic scenario, and right for the most pessimistic.

The province is fortunate to be looking at relatively small areas of risk for people and infrastructure, said Girard. But he knows that for many communities, the shoreline is the heart of town.

"You would have to be made of stone if you didn't feel for the people in the places that are threatened. I happen to live on a tidal creek, in a place that I adore, and home means something to me that can't be expressed in dollars and population figures."

"But you've got time to react and make decisions and protect these communities."

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