Muskrat Falls not to blame for Mud Lake flood, initial research findings show
Official report due out later this month
Researchers tasked with figuring out why Mud Lake flooded this spring haven't drawn the same conclusion as local residents.
The initial findings from researchers list the main reasons as rain in late November, a rapid spring runoff and possible sediment build up.
People living in the affected area, however, blame the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric development.
"[The megaproject is] significant in that it's there," said Dave Brown, who's analyzing data with KGS Group, to the roughly 30 people who attended a public meeting on the preliminary results Thursday night.
"Our assessment with the data didn't conclude that [Muskrat] being there was significant."
Despite those findings, residents still vehemently believe Muskrat is the reason they were evacuated from their homes during the early-morning hours of May 17.
"I know damn well that it was water management on this river that caused this flood," said Jim Purdy.
"This is the highest the water has ever been in the 15 years I've been living there."
Lacking data
The plausible explanations for flooding given on Thursday are strictly preliminary.
Meetings in Mud Lake and Happy Valley-Goose Bay were held for researchers to garner feedback from residents.
One of the concerns voiced by residents was around the data itself.
Dave Brown of KGS Group and Karl Erich Lindenschmidt of the University of Saskatchewan are behind the report and presenting initial findings <a href="https://t.co/mAiA1b5dC8">pic.twitter.com/mAiA1b5dC8</a>
—@KatieBreenNLIt was supplied to researchers by the federal government and Nalcor, and a potentially key piece — the ice thickness measurements from last year — has not yet been turned over.
Residents feel ice thickness was a contributing factor in the flooding and that the initial findings are incomplete and inaccurate without that information.
"If the data exists… it will be considered in that final assessment," said Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, the main scientist behind the study.
He said that information is generally made available in October but he plans to try and get it fast-tracked.
Initial findings into the cause of flooding at Mud Lake being discussed in two meetings. First was in ML. About 30 in attendance in HVGB <a href="https://t.co/2YGLDgQ3vR">pic.twitter.com/2YGLDgQ3vR</a>
—@KatieBreenNLWhen asked whether the data being collected at Muskrat was up to par, Lindenschmidt said one of his recommendations will be to extend some of the monitoring.
"That will be required to do more extensive modeling work or forecasting work and flood management work," he said.
A more extensive flood forecasting system was listed Thursday as one of the potential mitigation options researchers will include in their report.
Other options include coordinating water management plans with Churchill Falls, raising flood-prone buildings and roads, constructing dykes, expanding the reservoir, and considering buying out residents.
The final, official report is due out later this month.