Equalization difference could have paid off debt: Marshall

A revised estimate that shows Newfoundland and Labrador will actually lose money under the federal Conservatives' new equalization plan will not be tolerated, the province's finance minister says.

Tom Marshall noted that Memorial University economist Wade Locke's revised estimate of the impact of new equalization rules shows that the province would receive about $17.5 billion between now and 2020.

That's about $1 billion less than the status quo, and about $11 billion less than the $28.5 billion that the Newfoundland and Labrador government says the province would have received had Prime Minister Stephen Harper maintained a 2006 election pledge to exclude non-renewable resources from the equalization formula.

"That $11 billion is major. It's huge," Marshall told CBC News.

"It would have paid or gone a long way to paying off our provincial debt over 13 years."

Locke's studies of equalization have been followed closely by politicians of different stripes.

Two weeks ago— but working with a set of assumptions he now says did not match the fine print of the federal budget — Locke revealed that Newfoundland and Labrador would gain about $5.6 billion from the new equalization rules.

That revelation played well for the federal Conservatives, who have been fighting Premier Danny Williams's campaign against Harper.

However, Locke revised his analysis when he learned of rule changes from federal government officials.

"Since we did the analysis, we were informed that there was legislation already in place with a different qualification standard in place, and the impact of that is that Newfoundland really wouldn't qualify for the [Atlantic] Accord after, basically, 2009," Locke said.

The turnabout has put Fisheries Minister Loyola Hearn— Newfoundland and Labrador's cabinet representative— in a tight spot.

Hearn insists the Atlantic Accord, which the province and Nova Scotia negotiated with the former Liberal government in 2005, is safe.

"Are we going to get screwed? The answer is no, we're not," Hearn told reporters Friday.

"Are we going to be disadvantaged… by a billion dollars or by a dollar? The answer to that is no, because the government of Canada committed that we would not be disadvantaged."

Williams, who launched a nationwide advertising campaign in March painting Harper as an untrustworthy politician, was travelling last week and has not publicly commented on Locke's analysis.

For his part, Locke is refusing to comment on the political implications of his research.