Post-debate poll gives edge to PCs with just over a week to go

With the election just over a week away, a new poll gives the Progressive Conservatives the edge among decided voters — but also suggests most people think the Liberals will win on May 16.

Abacus Data's poll suggests PC support is at 42 per cent among decided voters, up one point from a year ago, with the Liberals at 37 per cent, likewise up one point. The NDP sits at 15 per cent, down eight points from May 2018, with the remainder — six per cent — committed to "Other."

"What we're seeing is that Ches Crosbie and the PCs do have an advantage. It's small, but it's outside the margin of error of the poll," said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.

He said the PCs are doing particularly well around St. John's and the Avalon Peninsula, as well as in the eastern and central parts of the island, while Liberals are stronger on the west coast and in Labrador.

Contrast to MQO poll

"The desire for change, perhaps, is driving people away from Dwight Ball and the Liberals, and they look at Ches Crosbie," said Coletto. And voters who want a change of government realistically have one other option, he said, since the NDP are running candidates in just 14 of the 40 districts, while the fledgling NL Alliance is running nine candidates.

The PCs are running candidates in all but one district.

Watch the full May 1 leaders debate: 

The numbers are in stark contrast to the poll released by MQO on Tuesday, which suggested the Liberals have a 12-point lead among decided voters, with a whopping 39 per cent of respondents declaring themselves undecided.

Coletto said the difference between their numbers and MQO's likely come down to when the polls were done. MQO's was conducted from April 25 to May 4, while Abacus did theirs May 2-5, after the leaders' first debates.

I think the debate might have had some effect.- David Coletto

"There is a big difference, I understand, between what we're saying about where voters are in the province, but I do think perhaps the debate might have had some effect, and as we get closer to election day, more and more voters are seemingly making up their mind, and I think that might explain the potential discrepancy in the two surveys."

Indeed, while MQO's poll suggests 39 per cent of voters are undecided, Abacus's respondents are less unsure, with just 21 per cent declaring themselves undecided.

Majority think Liberals will win, though

With undecided voters included, the PCs' lead over the Liberals narrows slightly — 33 per cent to 29 per cent. The NDP overall is at 12 per cent, and "Other" is at four per cent, leaving 21 per cent undecided, which Abacus says is high for this stage of the campaign.

Despite the fact the Liberals are trailing the PCs in the poll, though, a majority of respondents — 53 per cent — said they expect the Liberals to win the election. Thirty per cent of respondents said they thought the PCs will win, with three per cent favouring the NDP's chances, and 14 per cent unsure.

Other highlights from the poll:

• 65 per cent of respondents rated the provincial economy as "poor" or "very poor."  
• 31 per cent of respondents, when asked what is the most important issue facing the province, responded "economy" or jobs. Health care was next with 18 per cent. The provincial deficit and debt come in at 11 per cent, with Muskrat Falls/electricity prices next at nine per cent. 
• 53 per cent of respondents feel the province is heading in the wrong direction, while 33 per cent feel it's headed in the right direction. The rest are unsure. 
• 48 per cent of respondents said it's "definitely time for a change," while an additional 19 per cent said change would be good, but not important. Twenty-two per cent said it's definitely best to keep the Liberals in office.

Of the three party leaders voters were asked about — NL Alliance's Graydon Pelley was not included — none has a particularly favourable impression.

Forty-one per cent view Ball negatively, versus 28 per cent favourably and 27 per cent neutrally. For Crosbie, 30 per cent view him negatively, 27 per cent positively, and 34 per cent neutrally. Voters' impressions of NDP Leader Alison Coffin are split, with 20 per cent apiece for positive and negative, and 40 per cent neutral.

Rounding up to 100 per cent are the voters who say they don't know enough about the leader to say: four per cent for Ball, eight per cent for Crosbie, and 19 per cent for Coffin.

The poll of 700 eligible voters was conducted via phone — 65 per cent cellphone, 35 per cent landline — May 2-5. The margin of error for the study is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was not commissioned but was paid for entirely by Abacus.

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