Messy weekend storm bringing snow, ice pellets, freezing rain

Another weekend, another storm — and this one will have it all.

Heavy snow, ice pellets, freezing rain and rain are all on the way for the Maritimes beginning Saturday and continuing into Sunday.

It should be mentioned that there are a lot of moving parts with this storm, with a transition from snow to ice pellets to freezing rain and rain for many.

As a result, totals are little tougher to nail down and a slight shift in track, or a slightly earlier or later transition to mixing could result in changes to this forecast.

All that said, here's where we are as of now.

In Nova Scotia, the toughest forecast will be in Halifax and along the Atlantic coastline, where forecast models have been flipping back and forth on how quickly we transition from snow to ice and rain. Given that, there's a lower confidence than normal with this event.

The heaviest snow is expected along and just northwest of the track where we'll see mostly snow, with some ice pellets mixing in later Saturday. The best chances to see this will be across the southeastern half of New Brunswick, as well as the Cumberland and Colchester regions of Nova Scotia. Amounts will drop off to the north across New Brunswick.

Heavy rainfall is expected for Cape Breton and the Eastern Shore, which is where we'll see the greatest potential for amounts near 50 millimetres. The frozen ground will increase the risk of localized flooding here.

Flurries on Friday and Friday night will turn to steadier snow across Nova Scotia on Saturday morning as northeast winds ramp up. At the same time, the snow will begin to track into New Brunswick from south to north.

The snow will be underway across the entire region by lunch time on Saturday, with northeast winds increasing. It's around this time that we should begin to see a transition to ice pellets and freezing rain along the Atlantic coastline, including in the Halifax region.

That mixing line from snow to ice and then eventually rain will work from south to north across Nova Scotia throughout the afternoon hours, as northern areas will begin to see snow mixing over to ice pellets. Rain, at times heavy, tracks into eastern areas, including Cape Breton, where we'll see the risk of thunderstorms and the risk of localized flooding.

Northeast winds will continue to ramp up throughout the afternoon with gusts from 60 km/h to 80 km/h and above on tap for most. This will lead to blowing and drifting snow on the leading edge of the system and the risk for power outages, especially when coupled with the freezing rain potential.

By late Saturday evening, the mild air should reach its northern limit.

Much of Nova Scotia will see rain, however, with temperatures expected to remain near the freezing mark and northeast winds, I expect that areas in the Colchester, Cumberland and Annapolis Valley areas will be seeing freezing rain at this point.

Southern New Brunswick will likely see some ice pellets mixing in with the snow throughout the evening and overnight hours as well, while the snow continues further north.

Overnight and into Sunday morning, we'll see the centre of the storm move into Nova Scotia. An icy mix and rain will change back to flurries or light snow as temperatures fall and the winds shift to northerly. 

One of the big question marks moving forward will be exactly where the centre of that low will track.

There will be a pocket of strong south/west winds in the range of 80 km/h to 100 km/h and above around the centre of the storm. Whether those winds remain just offshore, or they whip in along the Atlantic coastline late Saturday night and Sunday morning, is still a bit uncertain and something I'll be keeping an eye on.

No matter the exact track, gusty westerly winds will arrive behind the storm on Sunday, ushering in cooler temperatures as the snow departs and the skies clear into the afternoon.

Pounding surf and storm surge is expected along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and into Cape Breton on Saturday afternoon.

North-facing coastlines will see higher than normal water levels and a surge near high tide on Saturday afternoon as well. With ice in the gulf and strait, ice pressure and rafting is anticipated.

As the centre of the storm moves through on Sunday another round of higher than normal water levels is likely for the Atlantic coastline on Sunday morning.

Be sure to stay safe and tuned for updates today and into Saturday. We'll keep you posted on any changes with coverage on TV, radio and online. 

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