Voter response to Green Shift a warning to Graham, analyst says
Premier Shawn Graham must reconsider how his government approaches the possible introduction of a carbon tax after watching the federal Liberals suffer heavy electoral casualties in the province, according to a political scientist.
The federal Green Shift policy is being blamed for the New Brunswick Liberals losing three of six seats, allowing the Conservatives to gain in industrial ridings such as Saint John and Miramichi.
The New Brunswick government is weighing a controversial reform package that includes a carbon tax offset by deep personal and corporate income tax cuts. A special legislative committee held public hearings into the tax reform plan this summer and the provincial government is expected to announce its plan in the March 2009 budget.
Tom Bateman, a political science professor at St. Thomas University in Fredericton, said Graham must delicately engineer a tax plan that can foster economic growth but not instigate an electoral backlash as witnessed by the federal Liberals.
Bateman said federal Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion did a poor job communicating how the environmental and economic benefits of a carbon tax would work, so Graham must learn from those mistakes or risk suffering a similar electoral outcome.
"I think if it is a simpler, cleaner and tax neutral or tax negative plan that the provincial government has for a carbon tax, then maybe there is a chance," Bateman said.
"There were lots of reasons for the poor Liberal showing and the carbon tax scheme was definitely one of them."
Premier acknowledges tax concerns
Graham told reporters in Moncton on Wednesday the controversial Green Shift plan played a role in the party's poor showing. Graham said he's heard many of the concerns from New Brunswickers on how a carbon tax could affect citizens, especially those living in rural areas or on low or fixed incomes.
"Clearly, I've heard those concerns, and I can tell you today that we're listening and we'll be moving forward with tax reform that will be putting more money back into the pockets of New Brunswickers. That's our key priority for today," Graham said.
Rick Myers, a political science professor at St. Thomas University, said Dion's electoral showing "would make any government think two or three times before imposing a carbon tax.
"The carbon tax played a big role in the Saint John riding and to some extent Miramichi," Myers said. "I think it will give Mr. Graham and [Finance Minister Victor] Boudreau further incentive to be quite cautious in what they are doing."
Saint John Conservative Rodney Weston said after winning a see-saw battle against Liberal incumbent Paul Zed that the unrest over the carbon tax pushed him over the top.
"Obviously, it was a big factor. We are in Saint John, and Saint John has staked its future on the energy hub. It has the potential to be devastating to the energy hub," Weston said on Tuesday night.
"But also, we have a big population of seniors that were very concerned about it. And when the economy became such a big issue near the end of the campaign, the carbon tax dovetailed with that concern."
Early in the campaign, Weston started raising questions about how a carbon tax could affect Irving Oil Ltd.'s proposed second oil refinery.