Holt's first headache: Choosing a cabinet from a large Liberal caucus
Premier-designate must balance experience with regional, linguistic and gender factors — and a few egos
It's a good problem to have.
Liberal Premier-designate Susan Holt has the largest incoming caucus of government MLAs since the 2010 election, offering her many options as she chooses her cabinet ministers.
There's no way she can possibly please everyone.
"It's not easy at all," said Jordan O'Brien, a chief of staff to former Liberal premier Brian Gallant.
"There's regional considerations, linguistic considerations, gender considerations, experience — and that's both political experience and not. … So it's quite a gamut of things you want to balance."
Holt will have to decide quickly: she and her cabinet will be sworn into power Saturday, Nov. 2.
The glut of Liberal MLAs from the Moncton area and southeast New Brunswick is not a surprise, but it's a challenge when choosing a cabinet.
With incumbents, including former ministers and ex-mayors, as well as up-and-comers, it's "the impossible region," because potential choices exceed the number of positions Holt could allocate to a single region.
"The list goes on and on and on and on," O'Brien said. "There's maybe three or four [spots] and more than double that in terms of people available. I don't know how you do that one."
The unexpectedly large contingent of a half-dozen Liberals in Saint John-area ridings, from the Route 7 interchange in the west all the way to Hampton and St. Martins, adds another layer of complexity.
O'Brien said they represent "a lot of talent, high-profile talent," including Aaron Kennedy, who he called a "giant-killer" for defeating Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs in his Quispamsis riding.
John Herron, elected in Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins, told an Oct. 2 candidates debate that his experience as an MP in Ottawa, and with the New Brunswick Business Council and the Energy and Utilities Board, "position me to play a senior role in a new government."
Holt set out to build a strong team and that's what she has, said former Liberal cabinet minister Donald Arseneault.
"She's not recruiting people like me with no background," said Arseneault, who predicts the former Horizon Health CEO and winner in Saint John Portland-Simonds will end up with the all-important health portfolio.
"She's recruiting the Dr. John Dornans of the world. I don't think Dr. John Dornan got in here thinking he was going to be tourism minister."
Aside from Saint John and Moncton, there are more than a dozen Liberals in northern New Brunswick, most of them incumbents, in a region that has been waiting six years for real clout at the decision-making table.
"If you're a sitting MLA, you're saying, 'OK, I don't want [the party] to get too much of a majority because then my chances to be in cabinet kind of diminish,'" said Arseneault, who sees Bathurst's René Legacy as a likely finance minister.
Holt may have a harder time choosing in the province's northwest.
Jean-Claude D'Amours, a three-term federal MP who has just won his third term as a provincial MLA for Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières, makes a lot of sense, he said.
But, he pointed out, the two other MLAs in the area, Francine Landry and Chuck Chiasson, supported Holt in the 2022 Liberal leadership race and that could be a consideration.
Another question is how many women Holt will want to put into her cabinet.
Aside from her, nine other women were elected as Liberals this week, only two of them with experience as MLAs.
The high-water mark for women in cabinet appears to be Higgs's 2020 cabinet, with six women out of 16, or 37.5 per cent, according to University of New Brunswick political scientist Joanna Everitt.
"I wouldn't go so far as to expect she's going to have a gender-balanced cabinet, because of the fact that really only about a third of her caucus are women," said Everitt, who studies gender representation in politics.
"I think there's going to be a lot of navigating through the typical factors that go into cabinet-making."
Holt told Radio-Canada on Tuesday that "the possibility is there" for an equal number of women and men, but she will also consider other factors to achieve "the most diverse and representative" cabinet possible.
Everitt said it's easier to achieve gender parity at the federal level, "in a much larger body like the House of Commons, when you'd have many, many more people to choose from."
The position of attorney general must be filled by a lawyer and Holt has three to choose from, including Rothesay's Alyson Townsend, who would also help with gender parity.
There are potential pitfalls to cabinet selection — and exclusion.
O'Brien said some rookies can struggle to master the cut-and-thrust of legislative debate.
Sometimes the MLAs most willing to "take one for the team" and stay outside cabinet are the ones best suited to be on the inside, he said.
And leaving out someone who is convinced they are deserving can backfire.
Miramichi-area MLA Michael (Tanker) Malley quit the PC caucus to sit as an independent in February 2006 after former premier Bernard Lord passed him over for a cabinet post.
That triggered a weeks-long political drama that saw Malley end up as Speaker of the legislature, prompting more turmoil in the house.
Lord, however, had a narrow two-seat majority at the time, while Holt's more lopsided win means one or two unhappy MLAs can't hold her hostage in legislative votes.
Still, it's a delicate task awaiting the Liberal leader.
"There is certainly a lot of egos in politics and a lot of folks that maybe have expectations, or their constituents have expectations, and they want to be on the inside," O'Brien said.
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