New Brunswick smashes population growth record set last year

The arrival of newcomers from inside and outside Canada continued to rocket New Brunswick's population into uncharted territory during the first half of 2023.

In new figures released this week, Statistics Canada estimated 834,691 people lived in New Brunswick on July 1st this year.  

It's 25,123 more than a year earlier and 43,889 above the number from July 1, 2021.

That's more population growth in 24 months than the province experienced over the prior 29 years.

Patrick Charbonneau, a senior analyst with Statistics Canada, said although population growth last year in New Brunswick had been the most recorded in a single year since Confederation in 1867, it was easily surpassed by what happened this year.

It's record after record," said Charbonneau.  

"The growth that we observed in the most recent years are both records. It is something we have never observed."

All of the growth has been fuelled by newcomers.

Deaths have outpaced births in New Brunswick over the last two years, at a rate of four to three, and caused a natural population decline of nearly 4,000 people. But arrivals have more than overwhelmed those numbers. 

Figures show New Brunswick had a net gain of 14,800 Canadians from other provinces, mostly Ontario, and took in more than 33,000 arrivals from other countries between July 2021 and July 2023.

That group includes about 19,400 permanent immigrants who have settled in New Brunswick, largely from India, China and the Philippines. It also includes 14,000 temporary immigrants who may or may not stay. They include students, temporary foreign workers and refugees. 

The increase has been so large and so sudden it has triggered both prosperity and problems in New Brunswick in almost equal measure.  

Earlier this week the New Brunswick government announced it posted a budget surplus of $1.01 billion for the fiscal year that ended on March 31, 2023.   

The money piled up largely due to a surge in provincial income and sales taxes, that finance Minister Ernie Steeves credits to so many new people living and working in New Brunswick.

"This year's financial results are reflective of a growing population and strong economic recovery," he said in a statement.

Those benefits are not in dispute.  

New Brunswick's economy has been growing alongside of its population, in part to meet an increased demand for services.

Retail sales are up, restaurants receipts are at record levels and construction activity is high. It is a key reason 28,000 full-time jobs have been added in the province in the last two years. 

An added benefit to the growth is that young families and young working-age adults have made up a large proportion of newcomers. That is filling gaps in the labour market and lowering the average age of New Brunswick's once rapidly aging population.

Earlier this month administrators with the two major school districts centred in the Moncton area, Anglophone East and Francophone South, said they were bracing to deal with an expected 35,857 students this fall, an increase of more than 3,500 from two years ago.   

Ten years ago, enrolment in Anglophone East schools was shrinking and superintendent Randolph MacLean said although growth has posed problems, including the need to operate 82 portable classrooms in the district, it has been an exciting change for the better.

"Will there be challenges? No, there will be opportunities and we'll continue to get creative," MacLean said. 

Lack of classrooms has been an issue caused by sudden growth but it is a minor problem compared to what has happened with housing.

New Brunswick has seen construction begin on 8,586 new housing units over the last two years. That includes 2,852 single-family homes, 4,429 apartment units and other structures, but it has not kept pace with the number of people arriving.

That has put pressure on the supply of available apartments and homes and caused the price of both to soar. The increases have been too much for many residents and with long waiting lists for public housing, record numbers have been forced into homelessness.

This week,  Mike Randall, the co-chair of the Greater Moncton homelessness steering committee, told CBC News that 734 people in Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton registered to use a homeless shelter for the first time so far this year. 

"We're continuing to house people when housing is available and where possible," Randall said in an interview.

"But the inflow is still far exceeding the outflow in terms of having the access to housing that is required to get folks off the street."

Health care has also been under pressure with a lack of doctors and other health care specialists posing problems even before so many new people arrived.

The New Brunswick government was initially caught flat footed by what happened. In early 2022, the Department of Finance projected population growth of 15,000 over two years, one third the actual number. 

This week Finance Minister Steeves said he has developed a list of fixes for some nagging issues, although he would not reveal what those are.

"I actually submitted to cabinet this week affordability measures," said Steeves. "There is good news coming."